Ed Yardeni

Mortgage Applications Falling, Consumer Credit Balances Rising

Jun 8, 2022 1 min read paid

The housing market may be falling into a recession, but consumers continue to spend—though they have needed to borrow more to do so. The seasonally adjusted purchase Index for mortgage applications, compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association, decreased 7% w/w and 21% y/y during the week ended June 3. Record-high home prices combined with this year’s spike in the mortgage rate to 5.40% have clobbered

Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicators Up, GDP Revision Down

Jun 7, 2022 2 min read paid

We have a mix of good and bad news this morning for you. We will start with the good news: Two of our favorite leading economic indicators—i.e., payroll employment in truck transportation and in temporary help services—rose to new record highs during May, according to Friday’s employment report (charts below). Both are highly correlated with the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, which is available through April.

Ed Yardeni

Tracking Equity Flows

Jun 6, 2022 1 min read

The stock market’s been dropping, but who is selling stocks? Is the stock market so illiquid that just $48.4 billion in net outflows from equity mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during April caused April’s steep 8.8% drop in the S&P 500? The S&P 500 also fell sharply during the first three months of this year, by 4.9%, but there were

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 6/6/22

Jun 6, 2022 1 min read

As analysts’ earnings estimates have scaled new heights this year, investors have experienced valuation altitude sickness, which may soon be resolved by the drop in P/Es since the start of the year. Or it may resolve in a much more sickening fashion if a recession sends earnings expectations—and valuations—hurtling downward. …. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

Quantitative Tightening Begins

Jun 5, 2022 1 min read paid

In recent conversations with our accounts, we have been hearing more concern about the Fed’s second round of quantitative tightening (QT2), which started this month. QT1, which lasted from October 1, 2017 to July 31, 2019, pared the Fed’s balance sheet by $675 billion. Under QT2, the Fed will reduce its balance sheet by running off maturing securities. From June through August, that will involve dropping its holdings

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 6/6/2022

Jun 4, 2022 1 min read

On June 1, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said that “fiscal stimulation is still in the pocketbooks of consumers. They are spending it.” We agree: Consumers have about $1 trillion in excess saving thanks to the government’s pandemic relief checks that weren’t spent. They’ve been dipping into that pool of money to offset the weakness in the purchasing power of their paychecks, which have been eroded by

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Indicators Showing Slowing Economic Growth

Jun 3, 2022 2 min read

We are seeing some very odd divergencies between the averages of the regional business surveys conducted by five Federal Reserve Banks and the national survey of manufacturing purchasing managers conducted by the Institute for Supply Management. In the past, the regional and national indexes for overall business, new orders, and employment tracked one another very closely. Now, not so much: (1) During May, the regional composite index fell to 0.

Ed Yardeni

Beware of Wildlife

Jun 1, 2022 1 min read

On our first day at Yellowstone National Park yesterday, my wife Valerie and I spotted lots of bison, but no bears. I believe this is a bullish omen for the stock market. They were all grazing quietly. We hope to see some bears today. Hopefully, they won't pose a menacing threat to us. Of course, at Yardeni Research, our outlook for the economy and financial markets isn'

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 5/31/22

May 31, 2022 1 min read paid

Valuation is in the eye of the beholder, but the economic outlook that influences it isn’t as subjective or hard to forecast, with lots of data available to help. … We think forward P/Es may be range bound this year and next and the S&P 500 may remain volatile below its January 3 high before climbing to new highs in 2023 and 2024. Below is exclusive early

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead 5/7/22

May 30, 2022 1 min read

The week ahead is a big one for business surveys and for employment during May: (1) The last of the five regional Fed banks’ business surveys will be released on Tuesday. The four available ones showed a sharp slowdown in business activity, suggesting that Wednesday’s M-PMI will also be weak even though the flash M-PMI estimate remained strong. The regional surveys also showed that prices-paid and prices-received indexes remained

Ed Yardeni

No Recession in GDPNow Tracking Model

May 30, 2022 1 min read

There’s no recession apparent in the May 27 update of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model for Q2. The real GDP growth “nowcast” was revised up slightly to 1.9% (saar). Consumer spending is tracking at a solid 4.8%. Business spending on equipment was revised down sharply to only 2.8%. Weighing most on Q2 economic activity in the Atlanta Fed model is a 5.6% decline

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Bear Spray

May 29, 2022 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our May 23, 2022 Morning Briefing. Next week, my wife and I will be on vacation visiting the bears (and bison) at Yellowstone National Park and Grand Teton National Park. We will be carrying some bear spray, just in case. The National Park Service offers the following advice: “Bear spray is a non-lethal deterrent designed to stop aggressive behavior in bears. Its use can reduce

Ed Yardeni

Page 103 of 109

Mortgage Applications Falling, Consumer Credit Balances Rising

Leading Indicators Up, GDP Revision Down

Tracking Equity Flows

Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 6/6/22

Quantitative Tightening Begins

The Economic Week Ahead 6/6/2022

Mixed Indicators Showing Slowing Economic Growth

Beware of Wildlife

Dr Ed's Weekly Webinar 5/31/22

The Economic Week Ahead 5/7/22

No Recession in GDPNow Tracking Model

DEEP DIVE: Bear Spray