Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Investors Are Spooked

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Halloween is on Tuesday. Investors have been spooked since early August. They are still spooked by the widening federal deficit, partisan gridlock in Washington, sticky inflation, Fed hawkishness, and a world of trouble. They've been reacting to good economic news as though it is bad news since inflation is less likely to moderate if the economy is strong. We don't agree because we think that productivity

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: October 29 - November 3

Oct 29, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors would clearly like to see peace on earth and goodwill towards all people. But that ain't happening anytime soon. They would also like to see the US economy slow so that inflation will fall faster and the Fed will turn less hawkish. That ain't likely to happen this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will probably be as hawkish at his presser on Wednesday, following the

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: What's Driving Bonds?

Oct 27, 2023 5 min read paid

In his interview Thursday with Bloomberg’s David Westin at the Economic Club of New York, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked about the bearish impact of the increasing supply of government debt on the bond market given that the Fed is no longer buying Treasury securities and that foreigners reportedly are reducing their purchases as well. Powell responded that buying by foreigners has “actually been pretty robust” this year.

Ed Yardeni

Are Stock Valuations Rerating?

Oct 26, 2023 2 min read

The economic news today was very good. But the stock market sold off sharply for the second day in a row led by a 1.90% drop in the Nasdaq, while the S&P 500 fell 1.19% today (chart). That's even though the bond market behaved with the 10-year Treasury yield falling from 4.985% at 8:25 am to 4.851% by the close. But

Ed Yardeni

Another Tech Wreck?

Oct 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The market chose to go down today on Google's disappointing Q3 earnings report rather than Microsoft's upside surprise on Tuesday after the close. Contributing to today's selloff was the rebound in the 10-year bond yield back up to 4.95%. Tech has been weighing on the market since mid-July as the yield rose by 100bps. The Nasdaq is down 10.7% since its 2023

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/25/23

Oct 25, 2023 1 min read paid

The Middle East crisis seems to be escalating into a regional war with US involvement, existential stakes, and global effects. The S&P 500 fell to its 200-day moving average on Friday in response to the geopolitical risks. We expect it to breach that level this week even if the bond yield declines. The escalation of hostilities we expect prompts us to raise our odds of a US recession

Ed Yardeni

Everything Is OK Except For...

Oct 24, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway and going well with Microsoft delivering a big upside earnings surprise after today's close. We still expect that S&P 500 earnings per share rose to a record high during the quarter. That's confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings (chart). Inflation continues to moderate as confirmed by today's Richmond Fed regional business survey'

Ed Yardeni

Ackman's Big Short

Oct 23, 2023 2 min read paid

“There is too much risk in the world to remain short bonds at current long-term rates,” Bill Ackman said in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter, this morning. “We covered our bond short.” He first disclosed his Big Short on August 2 on X, one day after Fitch Ratings downgraded US Treasuries from AAA to AA+, and two days after the Treasury Department announced that the government would

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 23-27

Oct 22, 2023 2 min read

This week should be another disappointing one for the hard-landers. That's been true all year and especially during Q3, when the economic surprises were mostly to the upside as shown by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (chart). Q3's real GDP (Thu) is tracking at 5.4% (saar) for the quarter according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. The labor market indicators are likely to show

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: 'Dangerous Times'

Oct 22, 2023 4 min read

Strategy I: Middle East's Existential Crisis. Jamie Dimon is probably right. On October 13, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase sounded the alarm on the global effects of the wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. “This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” he said in a statement accompanying the bank’s quarterly earnings. He warned of “far-reaching impacts on energy and food

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Slicing & Dicing Inflation

Oct 20, 2023 7 min read paid

Most economists, including Debbie and me, believe that if the data don’t support our forecasts, then there must be something wrong with the data and that they will be revised to show we were right after all. Most economists, including yours truly, also often dismiss components of headline indicators that don’t support our story and look to the remaining “core” indicators for conformity to our outlook and therefore

Ed Yardeni

Powell Remains Hawkish

Oct 19, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell should be very concerned about the rapid disinversion of the yield curve since early July as the bond yield soared from around 4.00% to nearly 5.00% today. If he is, he didn't show it during his interview today. Instead, he noted that the economy remains strong and monetary policy might have to be tightened some more: "We are attentive to recent

Ed Yardeni

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