Ed Yardeni

Up Or Down?

Jul 19, 2023 2 min read paid

Young bull markets tend to be widely hated. That's because many investors who sold during the preceding bear market fail to get back in at the bottom. Quite a few of them might have sold near or even at the bottom. The current young bull market is no exception. So why is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) so high? It was 3.01 during the latest

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/19/23

Jul 19, 2023 1 min read paid

Big banks’ top managements sounded relatively sanguine about the economy as they reported solid Q2 results, though JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon hasn’t totally abandoned the recession storyline that spooked investors a year ago. … There are two versions of the bearish economic script now, one seeing recession at the hands of savings-drained consumers and other seeing recession at the hands of the inflation-fighting Fed. We counter these narratives with

Ed Yardeni

AI Driving Market Meltup

Jul 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's economic indicators were weak, but the stock market rose to yet another new bull market high boosted by better-than-expected earnings from some of the big banks. Also leading the market higher was Microsoft, which rose 4.4% to a new record high. The company introduced Copilot to its suite of Office software. The $30-per-month subscription service adds AI which can design presentations, offer writing prompts, summarize meetings,

Ed Yardeni

Jamie Dimon Ambiguates About A Recession

Jul 17, 2023 2 min read

Some of the largest banks in the country— JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup—kicked off the official start to earnings season on Friday with relatively upbeat results and comments from their top managements. All three banks beat earnings expectations for Q2. BlackRock did so as well. In June 2022, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that the economy could be in a recession by about now. Now he sounds

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Getting Too Hot? Also: Our New S&P 500 Target.

Jul 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is hot. The Nasdaq is even hotter. The mounting concern is that both might be getting too hot resulting in a stock market meltup that could set the stage for a meltdown. If so, we expect that the downdraft would be a correction rather than a new bear market since we give 25% odds to a recession scenario over the next two and a half

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: July 17-21

Jul 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The good news is that the Federal Open Mouth Committee is prohibited from talking publicly now until July 27. That's the day after the end of the next FOMC meeting, when it is widely expected they will hike the federal funds rate by 25bps to 5.25%-5.50%. It is also widely expected that will be "one-and-done" for Fed rate hiking for a while. We

Ed Yardeni

US Disinflation Is Made In China

Jul 13, 2023 2 min read paid

It's not quite the great fall of China. However, something is definitely wrong with China's economy. June's trade data showed that Chinese exports fell sharply for the second month in a row and imports have remained flat since mid-2021 (chart). It was widely expected that the end of the government's pandemic lockdowns late last year would boost economic activity in China and

Ed Yardeni

Nothing To Fear But Fearless Investors

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 climbed to a new bull market high today of 4472 (chart). It is now 10.6% above its 200-day moving average. It is climbing along the upper end of its bull-market channel. Today's CPI news helped to alleviate fears that persistent inflation might force the Fed to persist with rate hiking resulting in a recession. Inflation seems to be more transitory than was

Ed Yardeni

June's CPI Was Cool

Jul 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 7/12/23

Jul 12, 2023 1 min read paid

June’s newly released employment report gives us clues about June’s not-yet-released CEI, and the CEI closely tracks GDP. So from the employment report, we extrapolate that June’s CEI will likely confirm that real GDP grew around 2.0% y/y during Q2, close to the Atlanta Fed’s current prediction (2.1%). A recession is still possible if the Fed keeps tightening, but we see just a

Ed Yardeni

Q2 Earnings Reporting Season Starts With the Big Banks

Jul 11, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q2 earnings season starts off this week with the major banks reporting their results. Based on weekly data provided by the Fed, we know that loans and leases at the large domestic banks rose modestly by 3.0% y/y through the end of June (chart). There's no sign of a credit crunch so far following March's banking crisis, which was quickly contained by the

Ed Yardeni

Sunny Day

Jul 10, 2023 1 min read paid

Today was a sunny day for stocks and bonds following a few stormy days. That's even though two Federal Reserve district bank presidents (Daly & Mester) said that inflation remains too high and more rate hikes will probably be necessary to bring it down. On the other hand, another one of them (Bostic) said the Fed's "policy right now is clearly in the restrictive territory.

Ed Yardeni

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