Ed Yardeni

Eurozone Is In a Recession

Jun 26, 2023 2 min read

Greetings from Dubrovnik! My wife and I started our vacation in Croatia last Thursday. We will be back in the USA this coming Thursday. We started our trip in Zagreb for one day and Split for three days. Now we are in Dubrovnik for the rest of our stay. Croatia is beautiful and attracts lots of tourists this time of year. Tourism is the biggest industry here but it is

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Fundamentals Good. Technicals Bad.

Jun 25, 2023 2 min read paid

In our previous QT (The Week Ahead), we observed that this week's economic indicators should be good for the stock and bond markets, confirming that the economy is still growing while inflation is continuing to moderate. Industry analysts seem to agree with us as their S&P 500 forward earnings turned more optimistic on the outlook for S&P 500 earnings recently (chart). However, in coming

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 26-30

Jun 24, 2023 2 min read paid

May's personal income will be released on Friday. It is likely to be the week's most important economic indicator. It should show that consumers' incomes continue to grow, while inflation is still moderating. We know that our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income rose to a record high in May (chart). We also expect to see that receipts of unearned

Ed Yardeni

China's Post-Lockdown Recovery Fizzles

Jun 24, 2023 1 min read paid

Since April, we have been observing that China’s economic recovery over the six months since the government lifted pandemic lockdown restrictions in early December has been surprisingly weak. The country’s total imports have been flat since late 2021 through May of this year (chart). The rallies in the price of copper and in the China MSCI stock price index late last year and early this year have fizzled

Ed Yardeni

Leading & Coincident Economic Indicators Are Contradictory

Jun 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) peaked at a record high during December 2021. It dropped 0.7% m/m in May and declined for the 14th month in a row, but there’s still little evidence the US is headed toward recession. Indeed, the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) edged up by 0.2% m/m during May to yet another record high (chart). The Conference Board,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 6/21/23

Jun 21, 2023 1 min read paid

The ranks of stock market bears are thinning as investors increasingly concede that no recession is on the horizon. Inflation will continue to drop, with positive—not negative—effects on earnings, we contend, because profit margins have been hurt—not helped—by high inflation. Lower inflation should boost margins and earnings. … The ranks of stock market bulls are growing, their case strengthened by broadening stock market leadership and more bullish

Ed Yardeni

Too Many Smiley-Face Balloons?

Jun 21, 2023 2 min read paid

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update on his view of the market from a trader’s perspective: “Breadth has improved for the S&P 500. But the cumulative advance/decline line for the Nasdaq is a galaxy away from confirming the strength in the S&P 500. Sentiment is way too complacent here. Friday had the lowest put/call ratio in many months. Yes, it’s always

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Expansion?

Jun 20, 2023 2 min read paid

What happens after a rolling recession? Perhaps a rolling expansion as the economic sectors that fell into a recession recover. Today's housing starts report for May was certainly strong. Housing starts jumped 21.6% to 1.63 million units (saar) last month from April's 1.34 million (chart). It was the largest percentage gain since October 2016. A survey on Monday showed the National Association of

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bulls Gaining Ground In Tug-of-War With Bears

Jun 19, 2023 3 min read paid

The bulls continue to gain ground in our tug-of-war with the bears. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 is now up 23.3% since October 12 to 4425.84 through last Thursday. That was the highest level since April 20, 2022. It was only 7.7% below the January 3, 2022 record high. (2) Measures of breadth are improving. The percentage of S&P 500 companies

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 20-23

Jun 18, 2023 2 min read

It's a short and light week for economic data. We'll be focusing on May's Composite Cyclical Indicators (Thu). The index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI) is the best monthly indicator of the business cycle. It tracks the y/y growth rate of real GDP very closely (chart). It was up 1.7% y/y during April, while real GDP rose 1.6% during Q1.

Ed Yardeni

Core Inflation: The True Story

Jun 18, 2023 2 min read paid

A few of our QT members asked us to explain why core CPI inflation, which has been so sticky over the past year, should moderate over the rest of this year. The headline CPI inflation rate has dropped significantly since last summer from around 9.0% to 4.0% in May (chart). But the core inflation rate has been stuck around 6.00% since early last year. The core CPI

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: All About S&P 500 Earnings

Jun 17, 2023 4 min read paid

Earnings I: The Past The Q1 earnings season is over, and the final numbers are in. They were better-than-expected results, which isn’t surprising when the economy is growing. Worse-than-expected results tend to occur when the economy is falling into a recession. That the economy would fall into a recession has been a widespread concern—but not our outlook, as you know. So far, so good. Today, let’s review

Ed Yardeni

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