Ed Yardeni

More Shoes To Drop?

Mar 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Needless to say, the recent turmoil in the banking sector is raising renewed fears of a recession and a resumption of last year's bear market. The rolling recession could turn into a full-blown recession if the turmoil roils the banking system significantly. Bankers could become more cautious lenders especially among the smaller regional and community banks. On the other hand, the Fed probably stabilized the situation with its

Ed Yardeni

Banking on Inflation Going Downhill

Mar 15, 2023 2 min read

All of a sudden, we are hearing more chatter about deflation. Yes, that's right: deflation. The story line is that the regional banks will respond to the SVB debacle by lending less to lots of middle market businesses, especially if depositors move their funds to the money center banks or to the money markets. The result will be a credit crunch and a hard landing forcing companies to

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/13/23

Mar 15, 2023 1 min read

Tightening monetary cycles often end abruptly when “something breaks” and a financial crisis is triggered. If the Silicon Valley Bank run is that something, it could mean tightening ends sooner and bond yields have peaked. We can’t say for sure that’s the case but can say the debacle should keep the tech sector mired in its rolling recession for longer. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed&

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Baby-Boom Theory of the Tight Labor Market

Mar 14, 2023 2 min read paid

The persistently strong demand for labor has surprised everyone from soft landers to hard landers. Fed officials are flummoxed. They’ve raised the federal fund rate by almost 500bps since early last year to cool labor demand and wage inflation. Yet the labor market remains hot. During January, the demand for workers measured as the sum of employment and job openings totaled 171.0 million, 5.1 million more than

Ed Yardeni

Inflation: Everything Everywhere But Less So

Mar 14, 2023 1 min read paid

And the Academy Award for the Biggest Economic Surprise of 2022 goes to . . . inflation. It has defied Fed expectations by being both transitory and persistent: Consumer goods inflation has been transitory, while consumer services inflation has been persistent. In any event, overall measures of consumer inflation continue to moderate. Consider the following: (1) The New York Fed’s consumer expectations survey was released on Monday with February’s results. It

Ed Yardeni

The Fed: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Mar 14, 2023 2 min read

Did the Fed just guarantee every bank deposit in America? That's really not the Fed's job; it's up to the FDIC to insure deposits up to a maximum of $250,000. By law, the Fed's job is to keep unemployment and inflation down. In addition to its legal "dual mandate," the Fed is ultimately responsible for maintaining financial stability. Our

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: March 13-17

Mar 12, 2023 2 min read paid

This week will be jam-packed with economic indicators. More important will be how government regulators deal with the SVB debacle so that it doesn't turn into an economy-wide disintermediation disaster in the event that uninsured deposits are withdrawn and parked in Treasuries instead. Our bet is that the Fed and the FDIC will act quickly to keep this from happening. For the sake of financial stability, the Fed

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Mar 12, 2023 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 dropped 3.3% on Thursday and Friday, led by money center and regional bank stocks as a result of the SVB debacle. The index fell through both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages to close at 3861.59, just 0.6% above its 2022 close (chart). January’s big gains among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 mostly evaporated during February and

Ed Yardeni

Disintermediation: New Problem For The Fed

Mar 10, 2023 2 min read

Yesterday's sell-off in the stock market was led by bank stocks. It was mostly triggered by fears that SVB may be the start of a financial crisis that leads to an economy-wide credit crunch and recession. As it has done often in the past, the inverted yield curve has been signaling since last summer that something could break in the financial system if the Fed continues to tighten

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: S&P 500 Earnings Season's Greetings

Mar 9, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q4-2022 earnings season is over. Joe reports that S&P 500 earnings data are out for the quarter. We weren’t surprised by the top-line or bottom-line numbers. That’s because we follow the weekly data series on forward revenues, forward earnings, and the forward profit margin. They continue to steer us in the right direction for assessing the near-term outlook for the comparable quarterly data (Fig. 1)

Ed Yardeni

Jamie's Hurricane

Mar 9, 2023 2 min read

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has been warning that a recession is coming. Today, ironically, the bank stocks took it on the chin sending the overall stock market lower because the economy is widely deemed to be too strong, and a solid gain is expected in February's payroll employment tomorrow. Furthermore, fears that next Tuesday's CPI report for February might be higher than expected raised concerns

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/6/23

Mar 8, 2023 1 min read

Productivity was poor last year—declining more than it has since 1974—and growth in unit labor costs was high. But the final quarter of 2022 saw significant improvements in both, and we think the worst is over for both. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. If productivity continues

Ed Yardeni

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