Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 27 - Mar. 3

Feb 26, 2023 1 min read

The economic indicators this week are likely to confirm that the economy is experiencing a rolling recession. Single-family housing is still in a recession. That's likely to be confirmed by January's pending existing home sales (Mon) and 2/24 mortgage applications (Wed). Manufacturing growth stalled last year through January. February's Dallas and Richmond Fed regional business surveys (Mon & Tue)--along with last week&

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: US Economy - Soft, Hard, Or No Landing?

Feb 25, 2023 4 min read paid

We think we coined “rolling recession” back in the mid-1980s to describe the economic slowdown that many feared would turn into an economy-wide recession. We think the phrase accurately describes the performance of the US economy since early last year. It’s similar to a “growth recession,” “mid-cycle slowdown,” and “soft landing” but includes the concept that different areas of the economy are experiencing the slowdowns at different times. We

Ed Yardeni

Two Too-Hot No-Landing Indicators Hit Markets

Feb 24, 2023 2 min read

The stock and bond markets reacted badly to today's stronger-than-expected personal income data and hotter-than-expected PCED. Is the economy experiencing an inflationary no-landing scenario? If so, Fed officials might conclude that the only way to bring inflation down is to push interest rates up until they cause a hard landing. More likely in our opinion is that these two indicators along with January's other economic stats

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Dividends Rise To Record High

Feb 23, 2023 2 min read paid

Dividends are like plants. Both grow. But dividends can grow forever, while the size of plants is limited. Notwithstanding last year's bear market, S&P 500 dividends grew to a record high of $562.9 billion during 2022 (chart). Dividends tend to fall during recessions along with profits. There was no recession last year. There may not be one this year. Money invested in the S&

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/21/23

Feb 22, 2023 1 min read paid

What’s next for the US economy? Of four potential outlooks, we see the greatest odds (40%) of a soft landing in which inflation moderates, the Treasury bond remains below last year’s peak, and the S&P 500 ends the year at a new high. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public

Ed Yardeni

More Soft Landing Stats

Feb 22, 2023 2 min read paid

No boom, no bust. That describes yesterday's flash estimates for February's M-PMI and NM-PMI released by S&P Global. They both track the comparable series compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The flash M-PMI rose from 46.9 in January to 47.8 this month (chart). It suggests that the ISM's version of this index will uptick but remain below 50.

Ed Yardeni

Rent Inflation Is Moderating

Feb 21, 2023 2 min read paid

The CPI's rent of primary residence is showing no signs of peaking, rising to 8.6% y/y during January (chart). However, it is widely recognized that this measure is a laggard because it includes rents not only on new leases, but also outstanding ones. The market-based rent inflation indexes compiled by Zillow and ApartmentList have been plunging from around 17% a year ago to 6.9% and

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 21-24

Feb 20, 2023 2 min read

The holiday-shortened week is a light one for economic indicators. The BIG number will be January's PCED inflation rate, which will be released along with personal income on Friday. The month's CPI was higher than expected , though the y/y inflation rate continued to disinflate. The PCED inflation rate tends to be lower than the CPI inflation rate (chart). That's because rent of shelter

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed Is Fighting the Markets

Feb 18, 2023 3 min read paid

Fed officials have indicated that they’d rather see stock and bond prices fall than continue to rise, as they’ve been doing since October of last year. In their opinion, financial markets’ strength has eased financial conditions in the economy, offsetting some of their efforts to tighten financial conditions to bring inflation down. Joe and I question their logic. In our opinion, the drop in bond yields since late

Ed Yardeni

Listening To The Markets

Feb 18, 2023 2 min read paid

On a regular basis, we all need to listen to the markets. They process a tremendous amount of information. They reflect the opinions of lots of buyers and sellers. Their price action can tell us a great deal about the economy, financial conditions, and sentiment. Joe Feshbach helps us to do just that based on his 40+ years trading the financial markets. He had expected that the S&P

Ed Yardeni

Loose Fed Lips Sink Stocks & Bonds

Feb 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Stock and bond prices fell today as two none-voting FOMC participants (Bullard & Mester) suggested that higher-for-longer interest rates will be necessary to bring down inflation. They were reacting to the latest batch of economic indicators confirming that the labor market is tight, consumers are still spending, and inflation may not be falling fast enough. January's PPI, released this morning, rose 0.7% m/m. That was above

Ed Yardeni

Foreigners Buying Lots of US Bonds

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read paid

Foreigners purchased a record $1.6 trillion in US securities over the 12 months through December (chart). That's an impressive US net capital inflow that was generally bullish for the dollar last year and offset the Fed's QT paring of its bond portfolio. Net foreign purchases of US bonds totaled a record $1.2 trillion last year as follows: Treasury notes & bonds ($927 billion), Government

Ed Yardeni

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