Ed Yardeni

How's Business In The US & Europe?

Jan 25, 2023 1 min read paid

We predict that global economic growth will improve this year. Until recently that was a contrary view since it was widely expected that the US, Europe, and China would fall into recessions this year. Now there is growing optimism about the outlook for Europe and China. The consensus outlook for the US remains relatively pessimistic.

Ed Yardeni

Why Is Gold Shining Again?

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read

Gold is a commodity priced in dollars. Like other commodities priced in dollars, the gold price is inversely correlated with the trade-weighted dollar (chart). The former has been rebounding since late last year as the dollar has been weakening on expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. The price of gold tends to track the underlying trend in commodity prices (chart). So its recent rebound suggests that

Ed Yardeni

Less Inflation & Growth In Three Regional Surveys

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read paid

We now have three business surveys for January conducted by the NY, Philly, and Richmond Fed district banks. Collectively, they are showing less economic growth and lower inflation. The average of their general business indexes dropped further into negative territory this month, suggesting that the M-PMI also fell further below 50.0 this month (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Good Breadth

Jan 23, 2023 2 min read paid

One of the best market timers we know is Joe Feshbach. We were colleagues at Prudential-Bache Securities during the 1980s. I’ve been summarizing his views on a weekly basis since the beginning of last year. Here are his latest thoughts he shared with me, this past weekend: “The good news is the market got bumpy as predicted, and it lasted a whole two days. The chart I’ve been

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/23/23

Jan 23, 2023 1 min read

Brace yourself for December’s Leading Economic Indicators and Coincident Economic Indicators coming out today. They are likely to trigger another recession alarm. But we still see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on a later date. What can the LEI

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: January 23-27

Jan 22, 2023 2 min read paid

The Federal Open Mouth Committee is giving us a break. Their blackout period started on Saturday. We won't hear from them again until February 1 at 2:30 p.m. That's when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold a presser following the latest FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, corporate managements will have a lot to say during their current earnings reporting season. This week is packed with potentially

Ed Yardeni

And the Winner Is ...

Jan 21, 2023 1 min read

When comparing the performance of various stock market indexes, the financial press tends to focus on just a few including the S&P 500 index that is market-cap weighted rather than equal weighted and excludes dividends. The following performance derby table shows what a difference these two other factors can make. It sorts the percent changes in the various indexes shown since January 3, 2022 through Friday's

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Pessimistic Consensus

Jan 20, 2023 6 min read paid

It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly. At the end of last year, there seemed to be widespread agreement that the first half of 2023 would continue to be bad for stocks as the Fed continues to raise interest rates and the market discounts a recession during H2-2023. The bear market in stocks was expected to continue

Ed Yardeni

Industry Analysts Trimming Earnings

Jan 19, 2023 1 min read

Industry analysts continue to trim their estimates for S&P 500 earnings for each of this year's four quarters (chart). They may continue to do so if company managements provide cautious earnings guidance during the current earnings reporting season. Nevertheless, as of the January 12 week, the analysts still expected that earnings will increase 4.0% this year compared to last year from $219.46 per share

Ed Yardeni

Surveys Say NY & Philly Manufacturing Weak

Jan 19, 2023 1 min read paid

Stock prices tanked yesterday following reports showing sharp declines in December's retail sales and industrial production. As a result, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) fell to -24.7 (chart). The 13-week change in the 10-year US Treasury yield (in basis points) is highly correlated with the CESI and it continued to drop yesterday. On Tuesday, January's NY Fed business survey was much weaker than we

Ed Yardeni

US Consumers Depress Stock Investors

Jan 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell on renewed worries about a consumer-led recession following the release this morning of December's retail sales and industrial production. Both declined last month. Yesterday, the NY Fed's regional business survey for January was also very weak. (We will review it tomorrow along with the Philly Fed's latest regional business survey.) Let's have a closer look

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Is Falling

Jan 18, 2023 1 min read

Interest rates fell sharply today on news that December's PPI confirmed that inflation is falling rapidly. The PPI inflation rate plunged from almost 18.0% y/y in mid-2022 to 6.2% by the end of the year (chart). Both the goods and services components of the PPI are disinflating. The PPI includes indexes for personal consumption based on prices received by the providers of the goods and

Ed Yardeni

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