Ed Yardeni

2023: Another Year of Living Dangerously?

Dec 26, 2022 2 min read

With the benefit of hindsight, the title of this QT certainly applied to 2022. It was a tough year for investors. The consensus view is that 2023 could be as tough: (1) A December NYT opinion piece by Peter Coy is titled, "A Strong Signal That Recession Is Looming." He focuses on the inverted yield curve, which often in the past accurately predicted a financial crisis that morphed

Ed Yardeni

The No-Landing Scenario

Dec 23, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

What Are We Rooting For?

Dec 22, 2022 2 min read

On Tuesday, the stock market sold off on fears of a hard landing. On Wednesday, the market rallied on better-than-expected earnings reports from Nike and FedEx and better-than-expected consumer confidence. Today, the market sold off on news that the labor market remains tight, raising fears of higher-for-longer Fed rate hiking. On the other hand, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators, released today, was very weak. After the close yesterday, Micron

Ed Yardeni

Is Santa Making A Comeback?

Dec 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Stock prices rebounded solidly from yesterday's selloff. Better-than-expected news from Nike and FedEx helped reduce fears of a hard landing with free-falling earnings. So did a better-than-expected rebound in December's preliminary reading on the Consumer Sentiment Index (chart).

Ed Yardeni

Fireworks Before Christmas?

Dec 20, 2022 2 min read

Santa is on his back foot. Fed Chair Powell's presser was hawkish last Wednesday. Thursday's batch of economic indicators seemed to support the hard-landing scenario. Could the Santa Claus rally make a comeback before Christmas despite the Grinch at the Fed? It could, depending on November's personal income report to be released on Friday. We think that it will confirm that inflation is moderating

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Consensus Forecasts Relatively Steady Recently

Dec 19, 2022 1 min read paid

We now have analysts' consensus estimates for the operating earnings per share of the S&P 500 through the December 15 week. They lowered their forecast for Q4-2022, now showing a gain of only 0.4% y/y. The actual results will be released by the companies during the upcoming earnings reporting season in January and February. The analysts' estimates for the four quarters of next year

Ed Yardeni

Bears Are Having A Field Day, Again

Dec 18, 2022 2 min read

Increasing market concern about a recession next year and triple-witching on Friday caused the S&P 500 to close out the week at 3852.36, its lowest level since November 9. It’s down 5.6% so far in December from its recent high of 4080.11 on November 30, but is still up 7.7% from its October 12 low of 3577.03. The index has made three

Ed Yardeni

Looking Forward to 2024!

Dec 18, 2022 1 min read paid

There's certainly lots of pessimism about 2023. That's the bad news. We certainly aren't as pessimistic as the consensus seems to be currently. The good news is that the stock market looks ahead by about 12 months. So the outlook for 2024 will matter more and more, while 2023's outcome will matter less and less as next year progresses. We are optimistic

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: Dec. 19 - Dec. 24

Dec 17, 2022 2 min read

Last Tuesday's good CPI news wasn't good enough according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In his Wednesday presser, he remained hawkish suggesting that the federal funds rate would be raised early next year to 5.00%-5.25% (bracketing the latest median forecast of the FOMC) and maintained at that restrictive level until inflation moderated significantly. Friday morning, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John

Ed Yardeni

Retail Sales Clobber Stock Prices

Dec 15, 2022 2 min read paid

Yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was more hawkish than expected. He reiterated that the Fed needs to be more restrictive to moderate inflation, and to remain restrictive until the job has been done. The FOMC Summary of Economic Projections now sees the federal funds rate rising from 4.25%-4.50% currently to 5.00%-5.25% next year and staying there. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury note fell to 4.

Ed Yardeni

The Fed: Higher For Longer

Dec 14, 2022 1 min read paid

The FOMC provided its latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) today after the committee announced a 50bps rate hike to a range of 4.25%-4.50% (table). At his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that that the rate is now restrictive, but not restrictive enough.

Ed Yardeni

CPI Inflation Peaked During June & Continues to Moderate

Dec 13, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices soared this morning on November's better-than-expected inflation news, but gave back much of the gain as investors realized that Fed Chair Jerome Powell might remain hawkish at his press conferencce tomorrow becuase inflation remains too high. The S&P 500 closed up 0.72% at 4019, just below its 200-day moving average of 4025. The CPI rose 7.1% y/y in November, a slowdown

Ed Yardeni

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