Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Market Call

Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Here is Joe Feshbach’s latest call on the market: “On Wednesday of last week, we had one of those crazy-high put/call ratios which halted the big decline in the Nasdaq the next day. Unfortunately, the ratio didn’t remain high and quickly returned to neutral.

Ed Yardeni

Risk Off In Last Week's Performance Derby

Nov 19, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P 500 went nowhere fast last week, dropping 0.7% to 3965, putting it in between its 200-day moving average of 4053 and its 50-dma of 3790 (chart and table). Hanging over the market is that investors seem to be hanging on to every word of the participants of the FOMC (a.k.a., the "Federal Open Mouth Committee"). The economy is doing relatively well,

Ed Yardeni

FTX Crash Isn't Stressing US Credit System

Nov 18, 2022 2 min read

Earlier last week, crypto exchange FTX had to deny customer withdrawal requests of about $5 billion. FTX lent about $10 billion of customers’ funds to Alameda Research for trading purposes. John Ray III is the new CEO of FTX. He was the man who cleaned up the mess at Enron. He says the situation at FTX is even worse, describing what he calls a “complete failure” of corporate control. (Here

Ed Yardeni

On A Wing & A Prayer

Nov 17, 2022 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Foreigners Still Piling Into US Dollar & Bonds

Nov 16, 2022 1 min read

The 10-year US Treasury bond yield dropped sharply from 4.25% on October 24 to 3.72% today. Recent CPI and PPI readings suggest that inflation is peaking, though it clearly remains high. Furthermore, Fed officials seem to agree that the federal funds rate needs to be raised closer to 5.00%. Then they intend to keep the federal funds rate at the terminal rate for a prolonged period of

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Aren't In the Mood for a Recession

Nov 16, 2022 1 min read paid

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth during Q4 is 4.4% today, up from 4.0% on November 9. After this morning’s retail sales report showed a solid 1.3% October gain, the nowcast of Q4 real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 4.2% to 4.8%.

Ed Yardeni

Going Fishing For Stock & Bond Market Bottoms

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read

Last Thursday’s lower-than-expected CPI inflation rate for October was greeted with a huge rally by stock and bond investors. They continued to discount the possibility that inflation has peaked and is heading lower following today’s PPI report for October. As a result, they seem to be concluding that the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle will be peaking sooner rather than later, with a terminal federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

Ups & Downs Of Inflation

Nov 15, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

We certainly aren’t out of the inflation woods yet, but we do seem to be heading in the right direction to get out of this dark forest. Let’s review the latest batch of inflation indicators, starting with two disappointing ones: (1) Inflation expectations uptick. On Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its October survey of inflation expectations of Americans. It headed in the wrong way,

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 11/14/22

Nov 14, 2022 1 min read

Economic recessions invariably produce earnings recessions, but earnings slowdowns and downturns can occur without economic recessions: Nominal GDP and revenues growth can stay strong as profit margins narrow, causing earnings growth to falter. That’s what seems to be happening now, with the earnings weakness looking like that of a soft, not hard, landing. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

The Cover Curse Hits Bitcoin

Nov 13, 2022 1 min read

Bloomberg BusinessWeek "asked the finest finance writer around, Matt Levine of Bloomberg Opinion, to write a cover-to-cover issue" of the magazine, "something a single author has done only one other time in the magazine’s 93-year history." The resulting article is a well balanced guide to the crypto world. It is dated October 25. The BusinessWeek article also once again demonstrates the curse of the front

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Two Great Performances

Nov 13, 2022 2 min read paid Featured

The latest bear market in stocks has had a couple of very impressive bear market rallies. The S&P 500 jumped 17.4% from June 16 through August 16 from 3666 to 4305. It is up 11.8% from October 12 through Friday's close from 3577 to 3956. It's interesting to compare the fall's great performance so far with the summer's:

Ed Yardeni

Stock Valuation Multiples May Have Bottomed

Nov 12, 2022 1 min read Featured

There are no guarantees in life. Outcomes are usually contingent on a number of other outcomes, and so on. This certainly applies to the forward P/Es of the major S&P stock indexes shown below. If we continue to see better-than-expected inflation prints in coming months, like October's CPI on Thursday, then these valuation multiples most likely bottomed on October 12, when the S&P

Ed Yardeni

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