Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Banking & Production

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P had another good day today following relatively upbeat reports from the banks about their business. The two largest banks in America say that the economy is still growing. On Monday, BOA CEO Brian Moynihan said, “Consumers are spending, they have money, they are employed and they have good credit.” On Friday, at the end of last week, even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged, "Consumers are

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 10/17/22

Oct 17, 2022 1 min read

More persistently pernicious inflation than expected is at the root of the financial market’s bearish sentiment. Revenues, profit margins, and earnings have been holding up relatively well; the market’s big problem is a significant downward rerating of the P/E multiples that investors are willing to pay in this inflationary economic environment. Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500: Why Today's Sizzle?

Oct 17, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 sizzled last week on Thursday. It fizzled on Friday. Why is it sizzling again today? On Friday, Reuters interviewed St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. As we observed in today's Morning Briefing, Bullard said that he favors “frontloading” hikes in the FFR, with a wait-and-see stance on 2023. In other words, he suggested that the Fed should go ahead with the widely expected

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Trading Call

Oct 16, 2022 1 min read paid

Joe Feshbach, our market consultant, is neutral about the short-term trading prospects for the S&P 500. He wasn’t surprised by Friday’s downward reversal of Thursday’s upside reversal. “The part that doesn’t fit and makes me uncomfortable is that breadth continues to be just awful, continually outperforming on the downside and underperforming on the upside.”

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Oct. 17-21

Oct 15, 2022 1 min read paid

Investors will focus on this week's batch of Q3 earnings reports and forward earnings guidance from Corporate America. They'll also be watching interest rates which might be buffeted by more loose lips on the "Federal Open Mouth Committee." The FOMC's blackout period doesn't start until Friday. The only inflation news this week will be included in October's regional

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: A Rolling Recession Is Underway

Oct 14, 2022 3 min read paid

Debbie and I have said it before: “The next recession may be the most anticipated recession of all times.” We have a reason to say it again: Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase yesterday said a recession is coming. The following is an excerpt from our Morning Briefing dated October 12, 2022.

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Fizzles

Oct 14, 2022 1 min read

Thursday's impressive reversal-day rally fizzled today. The big banks reported their Q3 earnings results today. On balance, they were better than expected. However, yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI weighed on the bond market, even though today's retail sales was relatively weak. Our Blue Angels framework (chart below) shows that S&P 500 forward earnings have been relatively flat since it peaked in late June. The

Ed Yardeni

A Wild & Crazy Day

Oct 13, 2022 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is back above the June 16 low of 3666. It plunged 2.4% today to a low of 3491 following the release of September's hotter than expected CPI report. It then rebounded 5.6% to a high of 3685 just after 3:00 pm before closing up 2.6% for the day. It's possible that prior to the widely-feared CPI report,

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Inflation & Remarkable Reversal Day

Oct 13, 2022 2 min read

Today's reversal in stock and bond prices from down big to up big, following the release of September's hotter than expected CPI report, has been quite remarkable. It's head spinning action. The day isn't over, but shorting the markets on bad inflation news just turned a bit more risky. We've been making the case that the US economy has been

Ed Yardeni

BBR Down to 0.57

Oct 12, 2022 1 min read

So far, widespread bearishness hasn't worked as a contrary bullish signal. Readings below 1.0 in the Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) have often marked the bottoms of corrections (charts below). But during bear markets, such readings can persist. In the current bear market, contrarians have been up against the old adage: "Don't fight the Fed." The BBR sank further below 1.00 this week, dropping

Ed Yardeni

Labor Shortages Depressing Small Business Owners

Oct 11, 2022 2 min read paid

Today, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its September survey of small business owners. They are about as depressed as they have ever been. That’s not because their sales are terrible. Rather, they can’t find enough workers to expand their businesses. So they’ve had to raise both the wages they pay and the prices they charge. However, September’s survey suggested that inflationary pressures are

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Are Still Consuming

Oct 11, 2022 1 min read paid

So far, consumers haven’t read the recession memo. They are spending freely, according to MasterCard SpendingPulse, which found that retail sales grew by double digits, both online and offline, in September 2022. Excluding autos, off-line retail sales increased 11% y/y, and e-commerce sales rose 10.7% y/y. (The data are based on in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment and are not adjusted for

Ed Yardeni

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