Ed Yardeni

BBR Edges Up To 1.15

Sep 14, 2022 1 min read paid

We are predicting that the S&P 500 will remain range-bound for a while between the June 16 low of 3666 and the August 16 high of 4300. The index closed at 3946 today, around the middle of the range. Sentiment remains very bearish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective: (1) The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed to 1.15 this week after falling the prior three weeks from 1.

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Shocks The Markets

Sep 13, 2022 1 min read paid

August's CPI report shocked the financial markets. It was widely expected to confirm that inflation peaked around June based on the drop in gasoline prices during July and August and mounting evidence that durable goods inflation is moderating. The problem is that in the nondurable goods category of the CPI, food inflation remains high, offsetting some of the improvement in energy-related prices (table below). While overall goods inflation

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Expectations Falling Fast Along With Pump Price

Sep 12, 2022 1 min read

We believe that it is the pump price of gasoline prominently posted daily at every service station in America that has the most immediate and largest effect on inflationary expectations. It soared earlier this year and so did inflationary expectations, which fell sharply during July and August along with gasoline prices (chart below). August's CPI is out tomorrow morning and is expected to be down 0.1% m/

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Home In The Range

Sep 11, 2022 1 min read paid

August's CPI will be released Tuesday morning. We think that last week's 3.6% rally in the S&P 500 occurred because investors started to anticipate a significant easing of inflationary pressures (table below). We know that gasoline prices plummeted and used car prices declined last month. There are even a few signs that rent inflation may be cooling off. If the market rallies on

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 12-16

Sep 10, 2022 1 min read

It's another action packed week ahead. On the inflation front, we are expecting that, on Monday, the FRB-NY survey of consumer inflationary expectations will show some moderation, reflecting the plunge in gasoline prices, while food inflation remained elevated. On Tuesday, August's CPI should do the same. August's NFIB survey of small business owners (released on Wednesday) is likely to show that lots of them

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: Is Divine Disinflation Possible?

Sep 9, 2022 2 min read paid

This is an excerpt from our Sept 6 Morning Briefing.Deep Dives (for paid members of QuickTakes) are occasional excerpts from our flagship research service which is available on a complimentary trial basis here. Is disinflation possible without an economy-wide recession? History shows that inflation rarely falls on its own without a recession (Fig. 3). But we don’t think history necessarily has to repeat itself (despite how often it

Ed Yardeni

One-Week Winning Streak

Sep 9, 2022 1 min read paid

The DJIA, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 snapped a three-week losing streak today. Why? After all, on Thursday, Fed Chair Powell in an interview at Cato Institute reiterate that the Fed won't back down on planned rate increases. "We need to act now, forthrightly, strongly as we have been doing, and we need to keep at it until the job is done," he said. "

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Analysts Shaving Their Profit Margin Estimates

Sep 8, 2022 1 min read

Previously, we observed that industry analysts covering the S&P 500 (as well as the S&P 400 and S&P 600) shaved their 2022 and 2023 during the Q2 earnings reporting season that started in July and ended in August. That may be it for now until they get another round of guidance from company managements for Q3 starting in October. Analysts remain mostly bullish on

Ed Yardeni

Reversal Days Signal Sideways Stock Market

Sep 8, 2022 1 min read paid

Stock investors don't know whether they are coming or going. They don't have much conviction. Yesterday, we observed that there are more market letters calling for a correction than either a big move up or down in the stock market. Reversal days seem to be occurring more frequently recently. Some days the market starts by moving down only to finish up. The next day, it goes

Ed Yardeni

BBR Drops Back to 1.0

Sep 7, 2022 1 min read

Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Ratio (BBR) slipped this week for the third week, to 1.00 (chart below). It had advanced the previous six weeks from 0.76 to 1.64, which was the highest reading since early January. (It was at 0.60 during mid-June, which was the lowest since the week of March 10, 2009’s 0.56.) BBR readings of 1.00 or less tend to be associated

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 9/6/22

Sep 6, 2022 1 min read

Fed Chair Powell has put the kibosh on financial markets’ wishful thinking that the Fed will start easing monetary policy next year. How will the Fed—and investors—know when it has achieved optimal tightening, with monetary policy restrictive enough to tame inflation but not enough to touch off a recession? Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will

Ed Yardeni

Divine Disinflation In NM-PMI Survey