Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: The Best Trump Trade

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let's call it the "Trump Thump." We aren't convinced that the correction is over despite Friday's rally and extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. In

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 17-21

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

In the week ahead, lots of economic data will be packed into the first two days, followed by the FOMC meeting decision and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference on Wednesday. The FOMC is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, though the tone of Powell's presser may depend on how February's batch of economic indicators released on Monday and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Lowering Our S&P 500 Targets

Mar 15, 2025 7 min read

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 13, 2025. Strategy I: Where Do We Go from Here? John Maynard Keynes is credited with saying, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” However, there is no definitive evidence that he actually said or wrote it. Wall Street’s forecasting community (including us) is scrambling both to assess February’s weaker-than-expected

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Scared Cat Bounce?

Mar 14, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 rebounded nicely today in the morning after falling into correction territory yesterday (chart). Was yesterday the bottom? It might have been based on sentiment indicators. On a fundamental basis, President Donald Trump (a.k.a., Tariff Man) didn't tweet about tariffs today after doubling down on Thursday. "I'm not going to bend at all," Trump said when asked about

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Why Cooler Inflation Isn't Lifting Markets

Mar 13, 2025 2 min read paid

February's inflation data provided conflicting stories. Both the CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, but neither cheered the stock and bond markets. That's because the components of both gauges that feed into the Fed's preferred PCED inflation rate were actually a bit hotter. In addition, January's PPI increase was revised up from 0.4% to 0.6%. So it'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Trump Put Is Kaput!

Mar 12, 2025 3 min read

Vertigo is a sensation of spinning or whirling such that the person or their surroundings appear to be moving. The stock market didn't do much today, but everything else seemed to be spinning. The epicenter of all this vertigo continues to be the White House. More and more economists are increasing their odds of a recession. We raised ours to 35% a week ago. JP Morgan's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/12/25

Mar 12, 2025 1 min read paid

High Noise-To-Signal Ratios Unnerving Stock Investors It’s getting harder to make out the shape of the economy through the fog of Trump 2.0’s firings and tariffs. Indeed, one regional Fed bank sees real GDP contracting this quarter, another sees it expanding, and bad weather has distorted signals from several economic indicators. No wonder the stock market’s default position is risk-off and stocks have been correcting. We’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will Trump Tariff Turmoil Dim The Economy's Lights?

Mar 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market was whipsawed today by geopolitical developments. Stocks fell this morning when President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum. They then recovered after Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire deal (pending Russia's acceptance). Incremental progress on a tariff-avoiding deal between the US and Canada late in the day provided an additional boost. But stock prices still closed down a bit for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stock Market Vigilantes On The Warpath

Mar 10, 2025 3 min read paid

The Stock Market Vigilantes have spoken. They don't like tariffs, and they don't like mass firings of federal workers. That's because they don't like stagflation, and they fear that Trump 2.0's focus on these measures could cause a recession with higher inflation. They really didn't like President Donald Trump's message on Sunday during an interview

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Investing Without A Trump Or Powell Put

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read

Anything is possible in Trump World. We can't rule out the possibility that a bear market started on February 20, the day after the S&P 500 rose to a record high (chart). It could be like the "flash crashes" that occurred during 1962 and 1987. It could happen quickly and reverse just as quickly. So the selloff could provide buying opportunities, especially in overvalued

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 10-14

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read paid

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last fall when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bps (chart). Businesses may have raised prices in February in anticipation of tariffs. If CPI services inflation remains sticky at January'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Trump Turmoil 2.0 Raises Odds Of A Recession

Mar 8, 2025 6 min read

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 5, 2025. Strategy I: Trump Turmoil 2.0. We haven’t had to change our subjective probabilities for our three alternative economic scenarios for quite some time. We are doing so today and may have to do so more frequently in coming months or even coming weeks in reaction to the volatile nature of policymaking under President Donald

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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