Eric Wallerstein

Layoffs Rising According To Challenger Report. Is That Alarming?

Mar 6, 2025 2 min read paid

We raised the odds of a recession on March 4 from 20% to 35%. Today's Challenger Report showed an alarming jump in February's announced job layoffs to 172,017, the highest since July 2020 (chart). On the other hand, initial unemployment claims remained low through the February 28 week. So we aren't raising our odds of a recession again, for now. A third of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

IN 10 CHARTS: Moving Markets

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read

(1) Will S&P 500 indexes find support at their 200-day moving averages? We think so. Sentiment is quite bearish and the next batch of economic indicators should confirm the economy is growing. (2) Will the Nasdaq remain in its bullish channel? We expect to see some dip-buying following the rapid selloff. (3) Will LargeCaps continue to outperform SMidCaps? Trump Turmoil 2.0 is weighing more on the latter

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed that tariff increases have a transitory, one-shot, price-rising impact. Indeed, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the Chinese "will eat any tariffs that go on."

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/5/25

Mar 5, 2025 1 min read paid

Testing The Resilience Of The US Economy We continue to bet on the resilience of the American economy. Yes, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model lowered its Q1 GDP forecast significantly on Friday. The volatile model swung in response to January’s surge in imported goods ahead of Trump’s tariffs. In addition, consumer spending was depressed by a colder-than-usual January, but consumer spending and the model are bound to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?

Mar 4, 2025 3 min read paid

We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be stronger in February and March, as we've discussed in recent days. However, Trump's tariffs imposed today on Canada, China, and Mexico could have stagflationary consequences

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Getting Dizzy? Buy Gold.

Mar 3, 2025 3 min read paid

Stock prices are falling because Trump Turmoil 2.0 is making investors dizzy. Just today, President Donald Trump confirmed that 25% tariffs will be imposed on Canada and Mexico tomorrow. He also said that the US will impose tariffs on agricultural products on April 2. The President ordered a pause on all US military aid to Ukraine, three days after he kicked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky out of the White

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Negative GDP Math Doesn't Add Up

Mar 3, 2025 5 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 3, 2025. The latest economic indicators aren’t supporting our resilient-economy thesis. Nevertheless, we are sticking with it for now. Consider the following: (1) Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now & CESI. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracking model lowered the estimated growth rate of Q1’s real GDP from 2.5% (q/q, saar) to -1.5% on

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Riding A Bucking Bull

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read paid

In recent weeks, many news headlines have suggested that the US economy is tanking and that so is the Old World Order. So investors are jittery, and a risk-off investment style is back in favor relative to a risk-on posture. They are questioning whether Trump 2.0 might depress the economy before stimulating it because higher tariffs, deportations, and federal job cuts are occurring before tax cuts, deregulation, and lower

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Another Growth Scare

Feb 27, 2025 3 min read

The stock market is in the midst of another growth scare, in our opinion. The latest batch of economic indicators has been weak. The current growth scare is reminiscent of last summer's scare. It is just as likely to pass if the next batch of economic indicators improves, as we expect. That still leaves policy uncertainty under Trump 2.0 to spook stock investors. We still expect that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Digital Revolution Marches On As Nvidia Beats

Feb 26, 2025 3 min read paid

Artificial intelligence, and all the capital spending that comes along with it, is here to stay. Nvidia reported today that its sales last quarter rose 78% y/y to $39.3 billion, and management’s revenue guidance of $43.0 billion (+/- 2%) for the current quarter was above the consensus estimate of $41.8 billion. Moreover, the company laid out plans to get its new Blackwell chips to market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/26/25

Feb 26, 2025 1 min read paid

A Tale Of Woes While Ed and Eric have been accentuating the positives in the stock market outlook and also acknowledging the negatives, investors and many commentators seem suddenly to be doing the opposite. Today, Ed outlines both the concerns that dragged the stock market off its midweek record high last week and our base-case Roaring 2020s scenario (55% subjective odds). Even if a 1990s-style meltup was followed by a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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