Eric Wallerstein

In 10 Charts: Consumer Confidence & Jobs

Feb 25, 2025 3 min read

The stock market sold off this morning on a decline in February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), confirming a similar decline in February's Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which was reported at the end of last week. The CSI survey tends to be more affected by inflation, while the CCI survey is more affected by employment. The former was weak this month on concerns about rising inflation, while

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dollar Still Dominant Despite Recent Weakness

Feb 24, 2025 4 min read paid

The DXY Dollar Index has fallen 3.0% since it peaked on January 13. Weaker-than-expected consumer spending and sentiment as well as gains in foreign currencies have weighed on the dollar. DeepSeek might also have contributed to the recent weakness of the dollar. But despite some near-term selling, the DXY is still up 3.0% since the November 5 election (chart). It also remains at one of its highest levels

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: Still In Choppy Waters Or Going Over A Waterfall?

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

Our answer to the title's question is that the stock market is still in choppy waters. Admittedly, it felt more like a waterfall on Thursday and Friday. However, the S&P 500 was down only 2.1% and that was from a record high on Wednesday (chart). Our hunch is that sentiment turned very bearish very quickly at the end of last week because investors aren'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 24-28

Feb 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead will feature Nvidia's earnings report after the market closes on Wednesday. That may be more important to the stock market than any of the economic indicators to be released during the week. Last week, Elon Musk's artificial-intelligence startup, xAI, unveiled its latest AI model, Grok 3, claiming it outperforms DeepSeek and OpenAI models across various benchmarks. The firm utilized 200,000 GPUs to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Gunfight At DOGE City

Feb 21, 2025 8 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, February 18, 2025. Federal Budget I: The DOGE Boys. “The Gunfight at Dodge City” is a 1959 Western film. After his brother the sheriff is murdered, Bat Masterson is elected to the job of sheriff and is determined to find the killer and make Dodge City safe. Today, there are gunfights going on in DOGE City to restore law

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Hitting a Wal(mart)

Feb 20, 2025 3 min read paid

Disappointing forward guidance from Walmart weighed on the stock market today. The company's shares fell 6.5% today despite a very strong Q4, mostly because the company's 2025 earnings expectations fell short of analysts' estimates. Part of the worry came from comments on the possible negative impact of tariffs. Management’s guidance also reflected negative currency impacts and a hit from acquisitions. On balance, the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Mind the Minutes

Feb 19, 2025 3 min read paid

The Minutes from January's FOMC meeting was released today. On balance, it confirmed that the Fed is on hold but still leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate some more if and when inflation falls closer to 2%. It's a dovish pause, which is supportive of both stocks and bonds. Consider a few key points, as well as recent economic data: (1) Inflation outlook. FOMC participants

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 2/19/25

Feb 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The Gunfight At DOGE City The Bond Vigilantes aren’t saddling up just yet, but they’re on high alert, Ed reports. They’re watching to see whether anti-DOGE gunslingers will cripple the new federal department or whether DOGE will root out sufficient government inefficiencies to enable Trump 2.0 to slow the budget deficit’s growth and proceed on its tax-cut plans. The stakes are high for the US

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Buying What Glitters

Feb 18, 2025 2 min read paid

A late-day rally sent the S&P 500 up 0.24% to a new record high of 6,130. But gold had a much better day, jumping 1.8% to a record $2,952 per ounce. This "safe haven" asset is now up 10.6% ytd, better than the S&P 500's 4.5% and bitcoin's 1.8% gains so far this

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 18–21

Feb 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The shortened economic week ahead is an important one for our rolling recovery forecast in the manufacturing sector. January's data suggested that industrial production may be starting a cyclical rebound (chart). This week's early look at February's regional business survey data may confirm that. There will also be updates on the housing sector. Let's discuss what's up ahead:

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: Roaring 2020s & Reciprocal Tariffs

Feb 14, 2025 7 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, February 11, 2025. US Economy I: On the Road Again. Taylor Swift’s “The Eras Tour” was her sixth tour. It started on March 17, 2023 in Glendale, Arizona and concluded on December 8, 2024 in Vancouver, British Columbia. My “Roaring 2020s Tour” started in California at the end of January 2024. My latest stops were in Georgia and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Yields Do A Backflip On CPI & PPI, Stocks Rally On Tariff News

Feb 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped by 10bps on Wednesday's hotter-than-expected January CPI report (chart). In his congressional testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has more work to do to get inflation down. Today, the bond yield fell 10bps on a hotter-than expected January PPI report and an upward revision in December's PPI. Huh? You read that right. Some of the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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