Steve Rybka

Stock Vigilantes Declare: 'Mr. President, Tear Down This Tariff Wall!'

Apr 4, 2025 3 min read

China imposed a 34% tariff on imports of US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump's trade war today. The S&P 500 continues to fall freely and the Nasdaq entered bear market territory this morning.

Ed Yardeni
Steve Rybka

Market Call: $100 Oil, $3000 Gold?

Apr 7, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the current decade turn out to be like the 1920s, 1970s, or 1990s? We are still assigning subjective probabilities of 60% to the Roaring 2020s (like the 1920s), 20% to a bout of irrational exuberance (like the late 1990s), and 20% to a second peak in inflation (as occurred during the 1970s). We might have to increase the odds of a 1970s-like scenario if the price of oil continues

Steve Rybka

Market Call: Refreshing Pause For Bulls & Reindeer

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The federal funds rate futures market is anticipating two 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate over the next 12 months (chart). That makes sense to us and is consistent with the September FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. More rate cuts could occur if a recession is coming our way in 2024, but that's not our forecast. We still think that the 10-year Treasury bond yield

Steve Rybka

The Economic Week Ahead: July 31-August 4

Jul 30, 2023 2 min read paid

The M-PMI is released on the first business day of each month. The NM-PMI is released two days later. We expect that the former (Tue) will show that the rolling recession in the goods-producing sector is bottoming, while the latter (Thu) should show that the service-providing sector is still expanding. We already have four of the regional business surveys conducted by five FRB district banks. The average of their general

Steve Rybka

Inflation Shock Continues to Abate

Jun 14, 2023 2 min read

The pandemic was a shock. It caused lots of aftershocks including an inflation problem which was widely expected to be transitory, but has seemed to be more persistent. It may turn out to be transitory after all according to today's May PPI report. We usually focus on the inflation rate of the final demand PPI for personal consumption (chart). It tends to coincide with the inflation rates for

Steve Rybka

Market Call

Feb 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 was up 16.9% from last year’s low of 3577.03 on October 12, 2022 through this year’s high of 4179.76 on February 2 (chart). We still view last year’s low as the end of the bear market that started on January 3, 2022. We believe that the rally since then is the start of a new bull market, though we

Steve Rybka

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