Our basic premise about the outlook for the global economy through the end of 2023 is that a recession is more likely to occur in Europe and China than in the US. Of course, a global recession that starts abroad could push the US economy into a recession if it is already vulnerable to one. On the other hand, global investors might conclude that the US is the only major safe harbor from storms blowing around the world. If so, then their capital inflows could help to insulate the US economy from a global recession.
