The global financial markets are reflecting expectations for an improved global economy, and the US stock market is siding with the optimists on the US economic outlook, us among them: We continue to see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%).
Recent GDP and inflation data support our soft-landing scenario. Q4 GDP was strong, but a look under the hood suggests it was boosted by unintended inventories and Q1 GDP might be tempered by inventory liquidation. The past three months of PCED inflation data highlights reassuring downward progress, especially in goods inflation.
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