A weak July employment report does not a recession make. The financial markets reacted on Friday as though it does, but we believe that report was a weather-impacted anomaly and not representative of the strength of the US labor market. Eric & Ed make that case today, explaining what was going on behind the scenes to make Friday’s stock market unusually volatile, why we expect employment data to snap back in August, and why we don’t expect a hard landing of the economy. … Furthermore, the latest productivity data are consistent with our Roaring 2020s outlook.
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