July’s surprisingly strong payroll employment report points to a strong July reading for the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators.
This is good news for the economy, bad news for the fixed-income market, and mixed news for the stock market. While it squashes near-term recession fears, it ups prospective Fed hawkishness. … Within the labor market, there is unprecedented churn as people quit in record numbers for higher-paying positions elsewhere. Over half the workers in July’s employment report were hired over the past year! But consumer prices are spiraling upward along with wages, so even job-jumpers aren’t seeing much wage growth after adjusting for inflation.
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