Today, Dr. Ed puts the notion of a recession still to come into perspective. Since 1945, the US economy has been in recession 14% of the time. Most of the nine recessions stemmed from the credit-crunching effects of monetary tightening. The most recent tightening round won’t likely trigger a recession despite the “long and variable lag” often noted before the economy reacts to tightening. That’s because this tightening round is different in many respects, one being the “Immaculate Disinflation” it has achieved (moderating inflation without a recession). For multiple reasons, we think it’s wrong to expect a hard landing still to unfold from this tightening round. … Q3 is shaping up as another immaculate quarter.
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