The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations are down even more for both indexes (charts below).
We will be closely examining the July business surveys conducted by four other Federal Reserve bank districts for confirmation that inflationary pressures are abating nationally. Philly will be released on Thursday. Dallas, Richmond, and KC will be out next week.
We will also be watching their new orders indexes. On average, they were weak in June. The NY new orders index remained weak during July.
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