Yardeni QuickTakes (Page 2)

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/26/25

Mar 26, 2025 1 min read paid

The Fed’s Economic Forecast Versus The Consensus & Ours Investors clearly fear a recession is coming—that’s what the recent stock market correction suggests. The consensus of economists probably puts the prospect of a recession at 35% (as we now do). Fed officials likely expect to avert a recession by lowering interest rates; FOMC meeting participants dropped their GDP projections last week to 1.7% this year. As

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Losing Confidence

Mar 25, 2025 3 min read

Consumers are feeling okay about the present situation, but they are losing their confidence in the future. The obvious cause of their anxiety is Trump Turmoil 2.0. The Trump administration admits that its trade and DOGE policies might cause some economic pain in the short run but says they should lead to big gains in the long run ("The Golden Age of America"). The problem is that

Ed Yardeni

Helter-Skelter

Mar 24, 2025 3 min read

"Helter-skelter" is a term used to describe disorderly haste, confusion, or chaos. That seems to be descriptive of the modus operandi of President Donald Trump's trade policy. Then again, perhaps there is method to the madness. Perhaps it is Trump's approach to the art of the deal. So the chaos is a feature and not a bug of his style of dealmaking. The technique

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: 'There Will Be Flexibility'

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

When President Donald Trump was asked on Friday about his tariff policies, he said: "I didn’t change my mind. I don’t change. But the word ‘flexibility’ is an important word. Sometimes there's flexibility. So there will be flexibility, but basically it's reciprocal." A WSJ article posted at 5:26 pm today is titled "White House Narrows April 2 Tariffs." It

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 24-28

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February's PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren't likely to translate to the PCED due to some hotter components that feed through to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Regardless,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

DEEP DIVE: The Valuation Problem

Mar 21, 2025 4 min read paid

This is an excerpt from Yardeni Research Morning Briefing dated Monday, March 17, 2025. Last Thursday, I visited with some of our accounts in Connecticut. They seemed remarkably relaxed that day as the S&P 500 fell into correction territory. Many of them are seasoned institutional investors and have been through lots of corrections and bear markets. Everyone attributed the selloff to Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0. The bulls

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Is Still Resilient, But Tariffs Pose Risks

Mar 20, 2025 3 min read

Today's batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest that economic growth outside of the US is increasingly likely to improve while downside risks to US growth are rising. As a result, US stock valuation multiples are

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Certainly Uncertain

Mar 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the word "uncertainty" 16 times in his press conference today. We sympathize. At the outset, it's impossible to know what tariffs will be imposed by the US on April 2., on which countries, and for how long. When the specifics are revealed, it will still be difficult to forecast their impact on economic growth and inflation in the US and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 3/19/25

Mar 19, 2025 1 min read paid

The Bull Versus The Bear Case Will all the Trump turmoil deepen the recent stock market correction into a bear market? Very few bear markets have occurred without accompanying recessions. If no recession looms, today’s historically stretched valuations could be sustained, Dr Ed says. But the Trump factor is unpredictable, and a trade war could cause a recession. Would Trump pivot before that point, pressured by the Stock Market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

'Liberation Day' Coming One Day After April Fools' Day

Mar 18, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market rally of the past two days faded today. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, just shy of correction territory. Even Nvidia fell 4.3%, even though the company announced new chips and a strategic collaboration with GM today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been hovering around 4.30% since late February. The price of gold rose to another record high (chart). We suspect

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Was That The Bottom?

Mar 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq might have bottomed on Thursday, but we doubt it for reasons we get into below. Both indexes rallied nicely on Friday and today. That action jibes with the extremely bearish sentiment readings of the bull/bear ratios compiled by Investors Intelligence and AAII. Last week, the former was down to 0.80, the lowest since the 2022 bear market, and the latter

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

MARKET CALL: The Best Trump Trade

Mar 16, 2025 3 min read paid

So far among the best Trump trades has been to short the S&P 500 since February 19 through last Thursday (chart). It fell 10.1% over this period. Let's call it the "Trump Thump." We aren't convinced that the correction is over despite Friday's rally and extremely bearish sentiment readings, which tend to be bullish from a contrarian perspective. In

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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