China might be in a recession or going into one. That’s a controversial statement since real GDP rose 5.2% y/…
The DJIA rose to a new record high of 38,001.81 today (chart). The DJTA is lagging behind the DJIA and…
We now see three possible historical precedents for the economy, the Fed, and the stock market's performance ahead: (1) The…
The week ahead should be another good one for our "immaculate disinflation" scenario. December's Index of Coincident Economic…
How much longer might the current economic expansion last? That remains a widely disputed question. The debate started between the hard-landers, soft-landers,…
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This question was partially answered yesterday in a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller: "This cycle, however, with economic activity and…
The runaway inflation of the 1970s was whipped only after Paul Volcker took over as Fed chief, doing the deed but not…
Chevron CEO Michael Wirth warned yesterday in a CNBC interview that the Red Sea crisis could disrupt oil supplies and quickly push…
Our Blue Angels framework allows us to visualize the stock market equation P = P/E * E in one chart, where P is…
Last week had plenty of indicators that allowed us to assess the latest readings on US inflation: It is continuing to moderate.…
How long is the lag between monetary policy tightening and recessions? In the past, the answer to that question depended on how…
