China

Looking For Black Swans In September

Sep 3, 2024 3 min read paid

September has just started, and it is already living up to its reputation of being the toughest month of the year for stock prices which tumbled today during the first trading day of the month. So did commodity prices, led downward by oil and copper. The stock market selloff started when it opened and before August's weak M-PMI report was released at 10:00 a.m. EST, which

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bonus Content: China In 10 Charts

Aug 29, 2024 2 min read

(1) Chinese consumers are depressed. (2) Home prices are falling in China. (3) Chinese stock prices are on downward trends led by real estate stocks. (4) China's real retail sales growth is weak and exceeds the growth of industrial production. (5) The growth rates of Chinese bank loans and M2 are falling rapidly. (6) Negative growth in M1 suggests that deflationary pressures on China's producer price

Ed Yardeni

China Dragon's Breath Is Less Fiery

Aug 14, 2024 2 min read

China's economy is faltering. July data suggest the government will have to provide more stimulus to meet its 5% economic growth target for the year. Most striking is the small but unusual decline in bank loans during the month (chart). It suggests a lack of confidence among businesses and consumers, potentially leading to reduced investment and spending. China's real retail sales rose just 2.2% y/

Ed Yardeni

Panda In A China Shop

Jul 15, 2024 3 min read paid

China just loaned two young pandas to the San Diego Z00. In the past, such Panda Diplomacy suggested that relations between the US and China might be improving. It's hard to come to that conclusion currently since both US presidential candidates seem to agree that the US needs to slap more tariffs on Chinese goods. China remains very dependent on exports to boost its economy, especially since the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Recession With Chinese Characteristics

Jun 17, 2024 2 min read paid

China’s May economic indicators were broadly negative, as evidenced by the recent weakness in Chinese stock prices as well as the price of copper, which is very sensitive to economic developments in China (chart). The bursting of China's property bubble continues to weigh on the economy despite the government's lame measures to support property prices. Weak home sales and property investment data sent Chinese real

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Copper, Oil & China

Apr 23, 2024 2 min read paid

Is the global economy suddenly taking off? It seems that way given the sudden vertical ascent of several metals prices, particularly those of copper, aluminum, tin, and zinc. On the other hand, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has slipped recently, suggesting that its recent advance had more to do with a rising geopolitical risk premium than a resurgence of global growth (chart). Our thesis is that

Ed Yardeni

PPI Not As Hot As CPI

Apr 11, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's PPI report threw some cold water on yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI. Our opinion is that the Fed won't be lowering interest rates this year because the economy and labor market will remain strong. Yesterday's CPI confirmed our conclusion based on the wrong premise. We aren't expecting inflation to get stuck above the Fed's 2.0% target. We think

Ed Yardeni

Two of the Magnificent 7 Get Shanghaied

Mar 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Two of the Magnificent-7 are less magnificent. That's because China is in a recession and Chinese consumers are buying fewer of Apple's iPhones and Tesla's EVs. These two companies are also facing more competition from Chinese producers of similar consumer goods. So, they are down 11.6% and 27.3% ytd. Also down by 5.0% ytd is Alphabet, which is deemed to be

Ed Yardeni

China: Pushing On A String?

Mar 4, 2024 2 min read paid

In recent weeks, the Chinese government has introduced several measures to prop up the stock market. This week, the government was expected to announce measures aimed at boosting the economy. In a surprise announcement today, a spokesman said China’s Premier Li Qiang will not brief the media at the close of this year’s annual parliamentary meeting, which begins on Tuesday in Beijing. The government may be concerned that

Ed Yardeni

Huge Negative Wealth Effect In China

Jan 23, 2024 2 min read

China might be in a recession or going into one. That’s a controversial statement since real GDP rose 5.2% y/y during Q4-2023, according to the official data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). The NBS also reported that industrial production rose 6.8% y/y in December and that inflation-adjusted retail sales increased 7.7% last month (chart). Those are not recession readings. China’

Ed Yardeni

What Is Powell Thinking?

Jan 17, 2024 3 min read paid

This question was partially answered yesterday in a speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller: "This cycle, however, with economic activity and labor markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually to 2 percent, I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past. The healthy state of the economy provides the flexibility to lower the (nominal) policy rate to keep the real

Ed Yardeni

Prepare For A Recession & Debt Crisis In 2024

Dec 26, 2023 2 min read paid

While almost everyone (except us) has been waiting for a recession and debt crisis in the United States, we've observed that this calamity has been unfolding in China since early 2023 and will probably continue and worsen in 2024. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, when the US debt crisis went global, China's debt crisis should remain local. However, China's recession is weighing on global

Ed Yardeni

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