Commodities

China: A Deflating Dragon

Nov 11, 2024 3 min read paid

Over the past three years, most American economists believed that a recession would be necessary to bring inflation down to 2.0% in the US. While the US economy managed to avoid a downturn, those predictions may have been right. The recession, however, was in China as the huge negative wealth effect of falling property and stock prices caused Chinese consumers to retrench. China's government encouraged manufacturers to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Risk & Reward In Emerging Markets

Oct 24, 2024 3 min read paid

The three-day BRICS summit of emerging market economies (EMEs) in Kazan, Russia concluded today. The group launched by Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2006 has done little in terms of rivaling US global economic and financial hegemony. However, the Russia-Ukraine war and fears of financial sanctions imposed by the US and its allies on adversaries have caused many countries to align closer to Russia and China or apply to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Sell Bonds, Buy Gold?

Oct 21, 2024 3 min read

Yes, that has been our advice since mid-August. Our August 19, 2024 Morning Briefing was titled, "Get Ready To Short Bonds?" We wrote: "Bond investors may be expecting too many interest-rate cuts too soon if in fact August’s economic indicators rebound from July levels and the Fed pushes back against the markets’ current expectations for monetary policy. So we are expecting to see the 10-year Treasury

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Big Mac Confirms Weak Global Economy Is Facing More Deflation

Jul 29, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumers around the world have cut back on buying Big Macs at McDonald's. The company reported its first worldwide sales decline in 13 quarters today. The company's CEO said, "Consumer sentiment in most of our major markets remains low." Yet, the stock price rose nearly 4% today after the company said that its $5 meal deal is a big hit and will be extended.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bonds, Oil, Copper, Gold & The Dollar

Jun 10, 2024 3 min read

On a regular basis, we like to check on the correlations among the fixed income, commodity, and foreign currency markets. Here are a few of our observations: (1) Bonds. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has normalized, fluctuating in a range roughly between 4.00% and 5.00% (chart). That's where it traded for a few years prior to the Great Financial Crisis. The same can be said

Ed Yardeni

Copper, Oil & China

Apr 23, 2024 2 min read paid

Is the global economy suddenly taking off? It seems that way given the sudden vertical ascent of several metals prices, particularly those of copper, aluminum, tin, and zinc. On the other hand, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil has slipped recently, suggesting that its recent advance had more to do with a rising geopolitical risk premium than a resurgence of global growth (chart). Our thesis is that

Ed Yardeni

'Knock On Wood'

Apr 3, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at Stanford University today about the economy and monetary policy. He said, "I think we've gotten to what is, knock on wood, a pretty good place." He added, "We're using our tools to try to bring inflation down the rest of the way to 2%, while all the while keeping the economy strong as well." Today'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Fed Choir All On Same Page

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke on Friday at an event at the San Francisco Fed. He repeated what other Fed officials have been saying recently. Solid economic growth gives the Fed "the chance to just be a little more confident about inflation coming down before we take the important step of cutting rates." Inflation continues to moderate on a "sometimes bumpy" path. So there's

Ed Yardeni

Continue To Underweight Commodities & Emerging Markets In Global Portfolios

Dec 11, 2023 2 min read

The global economy is growing, but at a slow pace. Much of the weakness is attributable to the recessions in China and Europe. US economic growth is slowing from Q3’s rapid pace. Much of the weakness is structural in China but cyclical in the US and Europe. The latter two are likely to grow in 2024, but China will probably remain weak. This implies that commodities and emerging markets

Ed Yardeni

Oil's Slippery Slope

Jun 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The Saudis are kicking the barrel down the road. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman announced an extra 1 million barrel-a-day (mbd) supply cut in July following a tense OPEC+ meeting in Vienna over the weekend. “Others in the group pledged to maintain existing cuts until the end of 2024,” Bloomberg reported, “though Russia made no commitment to curb output further and the United Arab Emirates secured a higher

Ed Yardeni

No Boom, No Bust

May 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Our Boom-Bust Barometer (BBB) fell into an unprecedented abyss during the pandemic lockdown in early 2020 (chart). Our BBB is the ratio of the CRB raw industrials spot price index to initial unemployment claims on a weekly basis. It is a very useful high-frequency business cycle indicator. Like the Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (CEI), it tends to peak at the tail end of booms and to bottom at the

Ed Yardeni

Why Is Gold Shining Again?

Jan 24, 2023 1 min read

Gold is a commodity priced in dollars. Like other commodities priced in dollars, the gold price is inversely correlated with the trade-weighted dollar (chart). The former has been rebounding since late last year as the dollar has been weakening on expectations that the Fed is almost done raising interest rates. The price of gold tends to track the underlying trend in commodity prices (chart). So its recent rebound suggests that

Ed Yardeni

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