Consumer

Good News Is Bad News

Oct 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's September reports for retail sales and industrial production were better than expected. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows real GDP grew 5.4% (saar) during Q3, up from 5.1% on October 10. Leading the estimate higher is real consumer spending with a 4.1% increase (table). That's good news for the stock market. It confirms our forecast that S&P

Ed Yardeni

Action Packed Week

Sep 14, 2023 2 min read paid

It certainly has been an action-packed week so far, and there is still Friday to go. Today, the ECB raised its official interest rates by 25bps; the People’s Bank of China lowered the reserve requirement ratio for most banks by 25 basis points; and, the price of oil continued to increase. Yesterday's headline CPI and today's headline PPI inflation rates for August were boosted by

Ed Yardeni

Consumers Fretting More About Credit & Less About Inflation

Sep 11, 2023 2 min read paid

Tech stocks seem to go up whenever the bond yield stops doing so. Leading tech stocks higher today was Tesla, which is actually in the S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary sector. Morgan Stanley issued a very bullish report on the auto company's new "Dojo" supercomputer. It suggests that Tesla may also be a play on AI. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yield remained below 4.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: September 5-8

Sep 2, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a short week ahead and a light one for economic releases. We expect that the financial markets will start to focus on the following week when both the CPI and the federal deficit will be released for August on Wednesday, September 13. One week after that happens, the FOMC will decide whether to hike the federal funds rate or not. We think the Fed is done. We

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed Answers Your Questions

Aug 24, 2023 2 min read

The following are some questions we have received in the comments section of our QuickTakes recently, and Dr Ed's brief answers: (1) Oaul S. asks: "Dr Ed, what's your response to inflationary concerns about a wage-price spiral triggered by big wage increases coming at UPS, and the prospect of labor unions negotiating similar wage spikes at Amazon and elsewhere?" Dr Ed says: "This

Ed Yardeni

The Promised Land

Jun 27, 2023 2 min read paid

The permabears will have to postpone their imminent recession yet again based on today's batch of US economic indicators, which suggests that our "rolling recession" is turning into a "rolling expansion." The housing market seems to be recovering nicely from its recession, which started early last year. The manufacturing sector is showing signs of bottoming, while nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose to

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Expansion?

Jun 20, 2023 2 min read paid

What happens after a rolling recession? Perhaps a rolling expansion as the economic sectors that fell into a recession recover. Today's housing starts report for May was certainly strong. Housing starts jumped 21.6% to 1.63 million units (saar) last month from April's 1.34 million (chart). It was the largest percentage gain since October 2016. A survey on Monday showed the National Association of

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, June 5-9

Jun 4, 2023 2 min read paid

It's a very light week for economic indicators. In addition, the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be silent until their blackout period ends after the FOMC meets on June 14 and 15. On the other hand, now that the debt ceiling deal was signed into law Saturday by President Joe Biden, the US Treasury will flood the fixed income markets with lots of securities to refill its checking

Ed Yardeni

Retiring Boomers Have More Time & Money to Spend on Services

Jun 3, 2023 2 min read

Since early last year, many economists have been forecasting that consumers will retrench, causing a recession. They may be missing the spending boom driven by Baby Boomers. As more and more of them are retiring, they are spending more on travel (including airfare, accommodations, and cruises), eating out, and health care. Employment is expanding in all these areas of the labor market. The retired Baby Boomers may no longer be

Ed Yardeni

The Economy Is Still Gliding Along

May 28, 2023 2 min read paid

Apparently, the debt ceiling issue has been resolved over the weekend, as we expected. The stock market might rally on Tuesday, but it has been taking the issue in stride focusing more on AI than Washington's political theater. The economy continues to glide calmly as evidenced by Friday's personal income report for April. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q2's real

Ed Yardeni

Progress In Debt Ceiling Talks Lifts Stock Prices

May 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Stock prices are up this morning on news that both the Democrats and the Republicans want to get a deal done on the debt ceiling issue. “I think at the end of the day we do not have a debt default,” House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told CNBC in a “Squawk Box” interview this morning. President Joe Biden echoed that sentiment later in remarks from the White House: “We’re going

Ed Yardeni

No Hard Feelings

May 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market fell today on Home Depot's disappointing guidance. Consumers fixed up their homes during the pandemic when social distancing restrictions kept many of them at home. By late last year and early this year, consumers pivoted from purchasing goods to spending on services. In other words, HD's y/y comps are challenging as housing-related retail sales have been weakening in recent months (chart). Today&

Ed Yardeni

Page 3 of 6