Consumer

Consumer Staples Prices Inflating

Apr 28, 2023 1 min read paid

The good news is that the headline PCED inflation rate fell sharply to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). The bad news is that the core PCED inflation rate edged down to 4.6%. We aren't changing our forecast for headline inflation this year. We are still expecting to see it fall below 4.0% soon and closer to 3.0% later this year.

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Buoyed By Solid Consumer Indicators

Apr 28, 2023 2 min read paid

The widely anticipated recession is still MIA. That's one reason why stocks have rebounded smartly since October 12, 2022, which was the end of the latest bear market in our opinion. It's hard to have a recession when consumer incomes are rising and they are spending more on both goods and services (chart). Inflation-adjusted incomes are rising because employment gains remain solid. Just as important is

Ed Yardeni

Inventories Depress GDP

Apr 27, 2023 1 min read

Economic growth wasn't as weak as suggested by real GDP which rose only 1.1% (saar) during Q1. During Q4, inventories surged as consumers pivoted from buying goods to purchasing services. Goods producers and providers stopped building unwanted inventories by cutting their orders to their suppliers and by lowering their prices to move their excess merchandise out the front door. So, excluding inventories, real final sales rose 3.

Ed Yardeni

Foul Moods

Apr 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% today mostly because First Republic's earnings report reminded investors that the banking crisis may not be over yet. That put them in a foul mood all day. Consumers are also in a foul mood: The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 101.3 in April, the lowest reading since July 2022, from 104.0 in March. Consumers&

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 27 - Mar. 3

Feb 26, 2023 1 min read

The economic indicators this week are likely to confirm that the economy is experiencing a rolling recession. Single-family housing is still in a recession. That's likely to be confirmed by January's pending existing home sales (Mon) and 2/24 mortgage applications (Wed). Manufacturing growth stalled last year through January. February's Dallas and Richmond Fed regional business surveys (Mon & Tue)--along with last week&

Ed Yardeni

Two Too-Hot No-Landing Indicators Hit Markets

Feb 24, 2023 2 min read

The stock and bond markets reacted badly to today's stronger-than-expected personal income data and hotter-than-expected PCED. Is the economy experiencing an inflationary no-landing scenario? If so, Fed officials might conclude that the only way to bring inflation down is to push interest rates up until they cause a hard landing. More likely in our opinion is that these two indicators along with January's other economic stats

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 21-24

Feb 20, 2023 2 min read

The holiday-shortened week is a light one for economic indicators. The BIG number will be January's PCED inflation rate, which will be released along with personal income on Friday. The month's CPI was higher than expected , though the y/y inflation rate continued to disinflate. The PCED inflation rate tends to be lower than the CPI inflation rate (chart). That's because rent of shelter

Ed Yardeni

Born To Shop & Fly

Feb 15, 2023 1 min read

We aren't that surprised by the 3.0% m/m jump in retail sales reported today. When January's employment data were released, we calculated our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income (chart). It soared 1.5% m/m as the average workweek jumped 0.9%, payrolls increased 0.3%, and average hourly earnings rose 0.3%. American consumers are doing what

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 6 - 10

Feb 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The FOMC's blackout period ended on Friday. So we can look forward to lots of chatter from the Fed heads until the start of the next period on March 11. They are likely to parrot Fed Chair Jerome Powell's moderately less hawkish outlook for monetary policy, as he explained it at his presser last Wednesday: Inflation is moderating for goods, but not yet for services. So

Ed Yardeni

US Consumers Depress Stock Investors

Jan 18, 2023 2 min read paid

Bond prices rallied and stock prices fell on renewed worries about a consumer-led recession following the release this morning of December's retail sales and industrial production. Both declined last month. Yesterday, the NY Fed's regional business survey for January was also very weak. (We will review it tomorrow along with the Philly Fed's latest regional business survey.) Let's have a closer look

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, January 17-20

Jan 16, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that more of the Fed's talking heads will be talking this week about monetary policy perhaps with a bit less agreement of what needs to be done next. They only have three days to do so before the FOMC blackout period begins. The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season continues this week. More important than the quarter's results will be managements' guidance for this year.

Ed Yardeni

Is The Service-Providing Economy Cooling Off?

Jan 9, 2023 2 min read paid

Consumers have cut back on spending on goods because they went on a goods-buying binge on them during 2020 and 2021, when many services businesses were either closed or limited by social distancing restrictions. During 2022, they pivoted to spending less at retailers and more at services providers as they reopened (chart). Consumers tend to determine the pace of economic activity. In a soft-landing scenario, they should continue to spend

Ed Yardeni

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