Forward Earnings

Are Odds Of A Bear Market Rising? Will Earnings Save The Day?

Mar 4, 2025 3 min read paid

We've been betting on the resilience of the US economy and earnings to keep the bull market going. Our thesis has been challenged by a rash of weak economic indicators for January recently. We think that they will be stronger in February and March, as we've discussed in recent days. However, Trump's tariffs imposed today on Canada, China, and Mexico could have stagflationary consequences

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Economic Growth Seems To Be Picking Up

Feb 10, 2025 3 min read paid

Bearish stock market narratives have been pervasive since early 2022. They are becoming more so now with each headline coming out of Washington. Duties, deportations, duties, and de-bureaucratization (the four "Ds") can have a shock-and-awe effect. But financial markets broadly have been unperturbed because the US economy continues to be rock solid. Then again, reining in the budget deficit and trade deficit is no easy task. President Donald

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Still Betting on US Consumers

Dec 17, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer spending rose again in November, with real retail sales rising more than 3.0% y/y (chart). Rising real labor and nonlabor incomes, plus a strong wealth effect from record highs in stock and home prices, have boosted spending for the past two years. The GOP election sweep also means the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will likely be extended in full, and there's talk in

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

An Earnings-Led Meltup For Stocks?

Nov 19, 2024 3 min read paid

We are often asked if the current bull market in stocks has turned into a meltup that could soon be followed by a meltdown. That's a risk we currently give a 25% subjective probability. Relatively high stock valuations are the main worry for many investors (chart). However, our bullish outlook for strong productivity-led economic growth means that earnings rather than valuations can lead the market higher. Coupled with

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Small, Medium, and Large Cap Stocks

Nov 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The rally in the S&P 1500 has certainly broadened in recent weeks as the Fed started to cut the federal funds rate (FFR) by 50bps on September 18 and again on November 7 by 25bps. The S&P 400 MidCaps and S&P 600 SmallCaps have been rising in record high territory in recent weeks along with the S&P 500 which has been rising

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Break Out The Bubbly: Lots Of New Record Highs

Oct 9, 2024 3 min read

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at records today. Leading the charge were technology stocks. Bank stocks also performed well. At the beginning of September, we wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher." We wrote the same at the start of October.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Oscar For The Best Leading Economic Indicator

Oct 7, 2024 3 min read paid

There have been numerous misleading economic indicators signaling a recession since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in early 2022. Among the worst have been the inverting yield curve and then the disinverting yield curve. And, of course, there's the falling Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI), which is long overdue for a product recall. On the other hand, S&P 500 operating forward earnings has been

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 EPS At Record High During Q2

Aug 12, 2024 3 min read paid

Now that the S&P 500 companies are more than 90% through the Q2 earnings reporting season, let's do a quick check up on how Corporate America is faring. In short, there's no sign of an imminent recession as S&P 500 earnings rose to a record high during Q2. Here's more happy news to serve as a tonic to the geopolitical

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Remaining Zen About The Yen

Aug 6, 2024 3 min read paid

BREAKING NEWS: Deputy BOJ Governor Uchida said that the central bank won't raise interest rates when markets are unstable. His dovish remark gave a broad lift to risk-on appetite in Asia. We wrote the following before this news came out.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

An Earnings-Driven Bull Market

Jul 22, 2024 3 min read paid

Yesterday, we suggested that the stock market selloff since the July 16 record high in the S&P 500 might not last very long. So we were pleased by today's broad rally in the S&P 500 (1.1%), Nasdaq (1.6%), Russell 2000 (1.7%), and the MAGS (2.4%). We expect that a solid print in Q2's real GDP on Thursday and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Stock Market Meltup: Earnings-Led Or Valuation-Led?

Jun 19, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The S&P 500/400/600 Performance Derby

Mar 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 LargeCap stock price index is up 44.0% since the end of the latest bear market on October 12, 2022. The S&P 400 MidCap and S&P 600 SmallCap are up 29.5% and 17.8% since then. The S&P 500 and S&P 400 are trading at record highs, while the S&P 600 remains below its

Ed Yardeni

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