GDP

Another Soft Patch

Jun 27, 2024 3 min read paid

The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022. It has experienced a few rolling recessions in industries like housing and retailing, which spurred soft patches in overall economic growth. The economy may be going through another soft patch, as evidenced by the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index, which has been modestly negative since May 3 (chart). After

Ed Yardeni

Housing Still In Rolling Recession

May 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Triple Whammy

Apr 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Today started out with a triple whammy for the stock market. Meta took it on the chin, the GDP report was stagflationary, and the bond yield rose to a five-month high: (1) Meta. Yesterday afternoon after the stock market close, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's CEO, took some air out of the AI bubble by saying his company would have to spend a fortune to make this technology work and

Ed Yardeni

Sweet Economic Indicators

Mar 28, 2024 2 min read

Today's batch of economic indicators was mostly sweet. Q4's real GDP was revised from 3.2% to 3.4% (chart). The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is projecting 2.1% for Q1-2024. Consumer spending was revised up from 3.0% to 3.3% despite fears that it would be depressed by the resumption of student loan payments. We disputed that notion by observing that real wages and

Ed Yardeni

50 Shades of Bright Colors

Feb 27, 2024 2 min read paid

The economic picture remains bright. The Atlanta Fed updated its GDPNow model today. Q1's real GDP is tracking at a 3.2% annual rate, up from 2.9% on February 16. Real GDP was up 4.9% and 3.3% during Q3 and Q4 last year (chart). We also learned today that there are still plenty of jobs available in the labor market. The Consumer Confidence Index survey

Ed Yardeni

Leading Indicator Still Misleading

Feb 20, 2024 2 min read

January's Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was down again by 0.4% (chart). It has been falling since December 2021. It was the 23rd straight monthly decline, just one month short of the record-long slump that began in April 2007 and ran through March 2009 during the Great Financial Crisis. January's Index of Coincident Economic indicators rose 0.2% to yet another record high, continuing

Ed Yardeni

The US Economy Remains Bullish

Jan 25, 2024 2 min read paid

One day, there will be a recession. It just didn't happen in 2022 or 2023, as was widely predicted. The best growth rates in real GDP over this two-year period occurred during the final two quarters of 2023 at 4.9% and 3.3% (chart). Real GDP rose 2.5% during 2023 following 1.9% during 2022. (Several economists got the magnitudes right, but the signs wrong.) We

Ed Yardeni

The Week Ahead: January 22 - 26

Jan 20, 2024 2 min read

The week ahead should be another good one for our "immaculate disinflation" scenario. December's Index of Coincident Economic Indicators (Mon) probably rose to another record high (chart). Payroll employment rose to a new high last month. Real personal income and real business sales of goods probably did the same. Production upticked in December. The Index of Leading Economic indicators has been misleadingly pessimistic since December 2022.

Ed Yardeni

Good News Is Bad News

Oct 17, 2023 2 min read paid

Today's September reports for retail sales and industrial production were better than expected. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model shows real GDP grew 5.4% (saar) during Q3, up from 5.1% on October 10. Leading the estimate higher is real consumer spending with a 4.1% increase (table). That's good news for the stock market. It confirms our forecast that S&P

Ed Yardeni

Upside Surprises

Aug 16, 2023 2 min read paid

The economy isn't landing; it's flying high. Following better-than-expected July reports for housing starts and industrial production this morning, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model raised Q3's real GDP growth rate to 5.8% (saar) from 5.0%, after raising it from 4.1% yesterday on a better-than-expected July retail sales report (chart). Consumer spending and residential investment are now tracking at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 14-18

Aug 12, 2023 2 min read paid

This week is packed with July's composite cyclical indicator releases which should ease fears that economic growth might be too strong given that real GDP is tracking at 4.1% (saar) for Q3 currently. That's quite a reversal from a few months ago when there were widespread fears of a recession. Consider the following: (1) The YRI Earned Income Proxy for private-industry wages and salaries in

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Remains On Downward Trend

Aug 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The FOMC can take the rest of the year off. The federal funds rate is now restrictive enough to bring inflation down without causing a recession, in our opinion. The banking crisis in March, Moody's recent downgrade of several regional banks, and the Fed's latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey all confirm that credit conditions are tightening. The economic data confirm that the economy remains resilient

Ed Yardeni

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