Housing Market

US Economy Is Still Resilient, But Tariffs Pose Risks

Mar 20, 2025 3 min read

Today's batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest that economic growth outside of the US is increasingly likely to improve while downside risks to US growth are rising. As a result, US stock valuation multiples are

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 25-29

Nov 24, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases, all in the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday. They are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year. The US economy and stock market are doing well. The most widely anticipated recession of all time has been a no-show for a third year. The S&P 500 is up 25.9% ytd and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 18-22

Nov 17, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead will provide important updates of housing and manufacturing indicators. The latter should show that economic growth may be broadening to include the goods sector, which has been relatively flat since the Fed started raising interest rates. Since the start of the bull market, we've been recommending overweighting the following cyclical sectors S&P 500 Information Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Industrials, and Energy (chart). We

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

When American Consumers Are Depressed, They Go Shopping

Sep 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Consumer confidence has been relatively depressed for the past couple of years according to the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) and Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI), which are based on surveys conducted by The Conference Board and the University of Michigan. The Consumer Optimism Index, which we calculate as the average of the CCI and CSI remains down and out (chart). The CCI tends to be more sensitive to employment, while the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Home Prices Just Too D@mn!#$ High?

Aug 28, 2024 2 min read paid

We were surprised to see the sharp drop in the percentage of survey respondents with plans to buy any home within the next six months in August's consumer confidence survey released on Tuesday (chart). After all, the 30-year mortgage rate declined from 7.79% at the end of October 2023 to 6.46% currently (chart). That's still relatively high, especially since the spread between this yield

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Economy Still On Bullish Track

Aug 22, 2024 3 min read

Stock traders took some profits today. They were probably nervous that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be less dovish tomorrow than the markets are about the outlook for rate cuts beyond 25bps in September. We've been less dovish than the markets since mid-June because we've been more bullish on the economy and the labor market than the consensus. Today's economic releases showed the US

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Multi-Family Housing Glut?

Jun 20, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's batch of economic indicators was on the weak side. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell deeper into negative territory today (chart). Does this suggest that the odds of a recession are increasing? Nope: The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking model is now projecting 3.0% real growth in Q2, down from 3.1% on June 18. The stock market held its ground: The S&

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Housing Still In Rolling Recession

May 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Sunny Economy, Gloomy Dispositions

May 28, 2024 2 min read paid

Inflation is the number one economic concern among consumers today. It's also moderated significantly since the summer of 2022; the prices of durable goods are even deflating a bit. The labor market remains strong, boosting consumer spending. Stocks are at all-time highs. Yet, according to a recently released Fed survey, only 22% of Americans think the US economy is in good or excellent shape, down from 50% before

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: May 20 - 24

May 18, 2024 2 min read paid

The week ahead is a light one for economic reports. The focus is mostly on the housing sector, which is showing signs of bottoming if not recovering. Meanwhile, we will continue to focus on Dr. Copper, the metal with a PhD in economics. We watch the price of copper as an indicator of global economic activity, which seems to be improving though the price of oil has yet to confirm

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Not-So-Hot PPI

Feb 16, 2024 2 min read paid

Tuesday's CPI and today's PPI for January were higher than expected. Thursday's retail sales and today's housing starts for last month were both weaker than expected. The new year is starting with hotter inflation and colder economic growth. Nevertheless, these hot flashes and chills should be temporary. In our opinion, inflation continues to moderate and the economy remains resilient. The latter forecast

Ed Yardeni

Mortgage Rate Rockets Up To 8%

Oct 18, 2023 1 min read

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rocketed up to 8.00% today. It is up from 7.57% on October 12 (chart). That's the highest it has been since most of the 1990s. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield rose to 4.91% today. That along with the unnerving crisis in the Middle East unnerved the stock market today. Mortgage applications to purchase new and existing homes is now

Ed Yardeni

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