Housing Market

Is Santa Making A Comeback?

Dec 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Stock prices rebounded solidly from yesterday's selloff. Better-than-expected news from Nike and FedEx helped reduce fears of a hard landing with free-falling earnings. So did a better-than-expected rebound in December's preliminary reading on the Consumer Sentiment Index (chart).

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Nov. 28-Dec. 2

Nov 27, 2022 2 min read paid

We hope you had a chance to relax with your family and friends and to recharge your batteries during the Thanksgiving holiday. We did. The big question that will be answered this week is whether the labor market remains charged up. There may be some signs that it is slowing given layoffs in the tech industry and the modest upturn in initial unemployment claims in recent weeks.

Ed Yardeni

Housing: Multi-Family Boom vs Single-Family Bust

Nov 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Single-family housing activity is falling into a recession. Single-family housing starts fell 29.5% ytd through October. Housing downturns have been major contributors to most recessions in the past. This time, though, strength in multi-family starts is offsetting some of the weakness in single-family starts. Single-family starts has accounted for only 51% of residential construction put in place over the past 10 years, down from close to 70% prior to

Ed Yardeni

What Is The Stock Market Discounting Today?

Oct 28, 2022 1 min read paid

The stock market is ripping this morning despite disappointing earnings reported by some of the S&P 500's MegaCaps this week. Why? Consider the following: (1) Today's inflation reports (for the ECI and PCED) suggest that it is peaking, though not for sure. (2) Inflation-adjusted consumer spending continues to move higher albeit slowly and led by services as spending on goods has flattened in recent

Ed Yardeni

The Housing Recession Deepens

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Fed officials have described the housing downturn as a "correction." For example, in an October 6 speech, Fed Governor Christopher J Waller said, "While this market correction could be fairly mild, I cannot dismiss the possibility of a much larger drop in demand and house prices before the market normalizes." He also said that "after mortgage rates stabilize, their drag on housing demand should ebb.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Oct. 17-21

Oct 15, 2022 1 min read paid

Investors will focus on this week's batch of Q3 earnings reports and forward earnings guidance from Corporate America. They'll also be watching interest rates which might be buffeted by more loose lips on the "Federal Open Mouth Committee." The FOMC's blackout period doesn't start until Friday. The only inflation news this week will be included in October's regional

Ed Yardeni

The Fed Is Too Hawkish

Oct 6, 2022 2 min read

Stock prices were beat down today by three downbeat and hawkish Fed officials (Fed Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, and Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic). They all repeated the Fed's party line: Inflation is too high and the Fed must continue to raise interest rates to bring it down. They reiterated what Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his September 21 presser. He mentioned the

Ed Yardeni

Housing Already Hard Hit By Fed Tightening

Sep 20, 2022 1 min read

Fed officials have been saying that they are aiming to raise the federal funds rate from an accommodative level to a restrictive one to bring inflation down. In their latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released by the FOMC on June 15, they indicated that they believe that the neutral federal funds rate is 2.50%, which is the upper end of the current target range. Odds are that it

Ed Yardeni

Major Housing Crash?

Sep 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Billionaire real estate investor Barry Sternlicht said he believes the economy is "braking hard" and that the continuation of rate hikes is likely to cause a "major crash" in housing. The chairman and CEO of Starwood Capital Group said so in a CNBC interview on Thursday. “If the Fed keeps this up they are going to have a serious recession and people will lose their jobs.

Ed Yardeni

Mixed Messages From Manufacturing & Housing

Aug 16, 2022 1 min read paid

July was a good month for manufacturing and a bad one for the housing industry. Industrial production, which is one of the four components of the Index of Coincident Indicators, rose 0.6% m/m to a new record high during July (chart). Housing starts tumbled during the month. Building permits, which is one of the 10 components of the Index of Leading Indicators, also fell during July. There'

Ed Yardeni

China Scrambles to Avoid Lehman Moment

Jul 20, 2022 1 min read

How do you say "Lehman Moment" in Chinese? The Chinese government is scrambling to avert such a calamity resulting from China's real estate bust. There's a global housing recession underway, led by China. That's why the price of copper has been in a freefall, plunging 33% from $4.94 on March 4, 2022 to $3.31 today (chart). We’ve been tracking

Ed Yardeni

Homebuilders' Sentiment Plummets

Jul 18, 2022 1 min read

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, a survey designed to gauge market conditions, found builder sentiment dropped 12 points to 55 in July. That marked the largest one-month drop in the survey’s 37-year history with the exception of April 2020, when the reading plummeted 42 points to 30 during the pandemic lockdown. The S&P 500 Homebuilding Index, which is highly correlated with

Ed Yardeni

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