Inflation

Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down

Mar 30, 2025 11 min read

YRI Bulletin Board. Our colleague Eric Wallerstein is taking a leave of absence. He has accepted a position on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. We wish him all the best. The following is a reprint of our Morning Briefing which we sent to our institutional investors today. We wanted to share it with our QuickTakes community of individual investors and business professionals. Your comments are always welcome. Reign

Ed Yardeni

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 24-28

Mar 23, 2025 3 min read paid

The predominant theme of the economic week ahead will be inflation, both realized and expected. Consumer inflation expectations will be updated for March, while February's PCED inflation rate also will be released (both Fri). Cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints last month aren't likely to translate to the PCED due to some hotter components that feed through to the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Regardless,

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Certainly Uncertain

Mar 19, 2025 3 min read paid

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used the word "uncertainty" 16 times in his press conference today. We sympathize. At the outset, it's impossible to know what tariffs will be imposed by the US on April 2., on which countries, and for how long. When the specifics are revealed, it will still be difficult to forecast their impact on economic growth and inflation in the US and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Why Cooler Inflation Isn't Lifting Markets

Mar 13, 2025 2 min read paid

February's inflation data provided conflicting stories. Both the CPI and PPI came in cooler than expected, but neither cheered the stock and bond markets. That's because the components of both gauges that feed into the Fed's preferred PCED inflation rate were actually a bit hotter. In addition, January's PPI increase was revised up from 0.4% to 0.6%. So it'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Trump Put Is Kaput!

Mar 12, 2025 3 min read

Vertigo is a sensation of spinning or whirling such that the person or their surroundings appear to be moving. The stock market didn't do much today, but everything else seemed to be spinning. The epicenter of all this vertigo continues to be the White House. More and more economists are increasing their odds of a recession. We raised ours to 35% a week ago. JP Morgan's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 10-14

Mar 9, 2025 3 min read paid

After several weeks of a growth scare, the attention this week will shift back to inflation. The new scare could be stagflation, which is the risk to our more upbeat economic outlook. CPI inflation has been reaccelerating since last fall when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 100bps (chart). Businesses may have raised prices in February in anticipation of tariffs. If CPI services inflation remains sticky at January'

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: March 3–7

Mar 2, 2025 3 min read

February's batch of economic indicators for January was mostly downbeat, the sort of numbers suggestive of a severe economic slowdown. They caused a few economists to raise their odds of a recession but not us. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell to -16.5, the weakest since the summer of 2024 (chart). The 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.24% on Friday from a peak of

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Mind the Minutes

Feb 19, 2025 3 min read paid

The Minutes from January's FOMC meeting was released today. On balance, it confirmed that the Fed is on hold but still leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate some more if and when inflation falls closer to 2%. It's a dovish pause, which is supportive of both stocks and bonds. Consider a few key points, as well as recent economic data: (1) Inflation outlook. FOMC participants

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

ECONOMIC WEEK: February 10-14

Feb 9, 2025 4 min read paid

The focus of the economic week ahead will be inflation. Businesses tend to raise prices at the beginning of the year; that could result in January CPI and PPI releases (Wed and Thu) that are hotter than expected even though both are seasonally adjusted. A few Fed officials recently worried out loud that tariffs could interrupt the progress toward the Fed's 2.0% inflation target. We expect Trump

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Powell Presses The Pause Button

Jan 30, 2025 3 min read

The FOMC left the federal funds rate (FFR) unchanged yesterday at 4.25%-4.50%, as widely expected. At his presser yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed might pause cutting rates for a while. He mentioned five times that the Fed is in no hurry to resume the cutting. He said eight times that the Fed needs to see further progress in lowering inflation. Powell acknowledged that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: January 13-17

Jan 12, 2025 3 min read paid

The week ahead is packed with inflation, consumer, and manufacturing indicators. Long-term Treasury yields could climb closer to 5.00% this week if fears about stickier inflation intensify. We're expecting solid updates on consumer spending. In addition, Q4's S&P 500 bank earnings reported late in the week should be strong and counterbalance any hit to stock valuations from higher yields (chart). Here's

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Yields Have Normalized

Jan 8, 2025 3 min read

The backup in bond yields since mid-September did not surprise us. But it has surprised lots of other financial pundits, who are warning that this could be bad news for stocks. It could be, especially if the 10-year US Treasury bond yield revisits last year's high of 5.00%. That would probably bring a buying opportunity in the bond and stock markets. We think that bond yields have

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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