Inflation

Monster Trucks With Monster Bills

May 7, 2024 2 min read

Since just before the pandemic during January 2020 through March of this year, the CPI indexes for new autos, auto maintenance & repairs, and auto insurance are up 21.0%, 34.8%, and 44.6% (chart). These all exceed the 20.6% increase in the headline CPI over this period. Why? Americans are buying lots more expensive light trucks than passenger cars. They cost more to buy, maintain, repair, and

Ed Yardeni

Stocks & Bonds Rally Despite Weak Productivity Report

May 2, 2024 2 min read

Go figure: Stocks & bonds sold off on Tuesday following a hotter-than-expected Q1 Employment Cost Index (ECI). It was up 5.4% q/q (saar) and 4.1% y/y. Today, they both rallied despite a hot Q1 unit labor costs inflation report. We agree with the markets' response to today's news because it is consistent with our view that inflation is still moderating when measured on

Ed Yardeni

Look For The Union Label In Latest ECI Inflation Rate

Apr 30, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q1 was another hotter-than-expect inflation report. It came out just as the FOMC started its latest meeting to discuss monetary policy. It increases the odds that Fed officials will sound more hawkish starting with Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his presser tomorrow following the meeting. Stocks sold off hard as the 2-year Treasury note yield rose back above 5.00% to 5.

Ed Yardeni

Lackluster Fed Regional Business Surveys

Apr 29, 2024 2 min read paid

We now have the regional business surveys conducted by five of the Federal Reserve district banks. The average of their general business conditions indexes closely tracks the national manufacturing purchasing managers index (M-PMI), which rose slightly above 50.0 during March following 16 consecutive monthly readings below this level (chart). The regional average index was still negative in April. So it has yet to confirm that the rolling recession in

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 29 - May 3

Apr 28, 2024 2 min read paid

This could be another action packed week as the Fed's meeting and the latest S&P 500 earnings reporting season take center stage. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his press conference on Wednesday after the latest FOMC meeting adjourns. He is likely to reiterate that the FOMC is in no rush to lower interest rates, and isn't considering raising them either. That won'

Ed Yardeni

Triple Whammy

Apr 25, 2024 2 min read paid

Today started out with a triple whammy for the stock market. Meta took it on the chin, the GDP report was stagflationary, and the bond yield rose to a five-month high: (1) Meta. Yesterday afternoon after the stock market close, Mark Zuckerberg, Meta's CEO, took some air out of the AI bubble by saying his company would have to spend a fortune to make this technology work and

Ed Yardeni

PPI Not As Hot As CPI

Apr 11, 2024 2 min read paid

Today's PPI report threw some cold water on yesterday's hotter-than-expected CPI. Our opinion is that the Fed won't be lowering interest rates this year because the economy and labor market will remain strong. Yesterday's CPI confirmed our conclusion based on the wrong premise. We aren't expecting inflation to get stuck above the Fed's 2.0% target. We think

Ed Yardeni

The Last Mile

Apr 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Will the Fed start raising the federal funds rate again? We expect to be hearing this question more often following today's hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report. The previous two reports for January and February were also hotter-than-expected. We don't think that the Fed will raise rates again this year, but we've pushed back against the widely-held notion of several cuts this year and argued that

Ed Yardeni

Will Depressed Small Business Owners Depress The Economy?

Apr 9, 2024 2 min read paid

Stocks marked time today, while bonds rallied after the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its March survey of small business owners this morning. It was a pessimistic report overall. The small business optimism index fell to the lowest reading since December 2012 (chart). Yet, the solid performance of the economy has been at odds with the mounting pessimism of small business owners since early 2022. The employment-related series

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 8 - 12

Apr 7, 2024 2 min read

This week will feature some key inflation numbers. The March headline CPI (Wed) and PPI (Mar) will get a boost from higher gasoline prices. Their core inflation rates should continue to moderate. The week starts with the FRBNY survey of inflation expectations (Mon). The pump price of gasoline jumped last month and probably boosted inflation expectations (chart): The gasoline component of the March CPI will also reflect the jump in

Ed Yardeni

Rolling Recoveries In Manufacturing & Retailing

Apr 1, 2024 2 min read paid

The rolling recessions in manufacturing and retailing are turning into rolling recoveries. That's our conclusion based on today's relatively solid manufacturing purchasing managers report for March. The M-PMI rose to 50.3, the first reading above 50.0 since September 2022 (chart). That was the beginning of the rolling recession that hit goods producers following the post-lockdown goods buying binge that started May 2020. The new

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 1 - 5

Mar 31, 2024 2 min read paid

The first week of the month is always jampacked with economic indicators. In addition, at least one member of the Federal Open Mouth Committee will be speaking every day. The economic indicators should confirm that the economy remains resilient in the face of pockets of weakness (a.k.a., rolling recessions). For starters, we'll see if the ISM's March M-PMI (Mon) confirms the weakness in the

Ed Yardeni

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