Inflation

There's Always Something To Worry About

Jan 11, 2024 2 min read paid

The stock and bond markets are marking time. They might continue to do so during the first half of this year. The stock market should resume its advance during the second half of the year. The 10-year bond yield may continue to hover around 4.00% +/- 25bps this year. Here are the major issues hanging over the markets currently: (1) Inflation. December's CPI release showed a slight

Ed Yardeni

Prepare For A Recession & Debt Crisis In 2024

Dec 26, 2023 2 min read paid

While almost everyone (except us) has been waiting for a recession and debt crisis in the United States, we've observed that this calamity has been unfolding in China since early 2023 and will probably continue and worsen in 2024. Unlike the Great Financial Crisis, when the US debt crisis went global, China's debt crisis should remain local. However, China's recession is weighing on global

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Charging Into 2024

Dec 25, 2023 2 min read paid

Merry, happy, joyful, and jolly are just some of the adjectives used to describe this time of year. We hope your holiday season has been merry, happy, joyful and jolly so far. It sure has been for stock investors. The fun started more than a year ago on October 12, 2022 when the bear market bottomed. It has been a powerful bull market since then. Consider the following: (1) Here

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 18 - 22

Dec 17, 2023 2 min read paid

On Wednesday, at his presser, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish. So bond and stock prices continued to rally on expectations that the Fed might cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 by 75bps in total. On Friday, NY Fed President John Williams pushed back by saying, "We aren't really talking about rate cuts right now." More Fed officials will weigh in on

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings At Record High

Dec 12, 2023 2 min read paid

Yippee! S&P 500 operating earnings per share rose to a record high in Q3, for the first time since Q2-2022, and its 4.6% y/y increase was the first such gain in four quarters (chart). Forward earnings rose to another record high during the December 7 week, suggesting the same for actual earnings during Q4. The just-ended earnings recession was very mild, with three back-to-back quarters of

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: December 11 - 15

Dec 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The big event of the week will be the FOMC meeting (Tue & Wed) followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's presser (Wed @ 2:30 pm). December's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will be released along with the Dot Plot after the meeting. The markets have most likely fully discounted what Powell will say and what the SEP and Dot Plot will show. Powell will say that

Ed Yardeni

Productivity Revised Up

Dec 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market marked time again today with the S&P 500 remaining around 4550. The 10-year Treasury bond yield continued to fall today to 4.10%. Apparently, today's economic indicators were deemed to be more bullish for bonds than stocks. Consider the following: (1) Employment & wages. ADP reported that payrolls rose just 103,000 during November. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November,

Ed Yardeni

Inflation Cooling

Nov 30, 2023 2 min read paid

Stocks rallied today as October's PCED inflation rate continued to moderate. Most importantly, the inflation rate of PCED services excluding energy and housing is falling. It has been stuck around 5.0% in 2022 and earlier this year. But it was down to 3.9% y/y in October (chart). Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have said that they are concerned about the stickiness of this

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Winning Streak For The Bulls

Nov 26, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that the Santa Claus rally in stock prices that started on October 27 will continue over the rest of this year. It should be driven by the realization that inflation can and is moderating without a recession. That can only happen if productivity growth is making a comeback as we expect. China's economic woes are also an important source of "immaculate disinflation" for the

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: November 27 - December 1

Nov 26, 2023 2 min read paid

The BIG number of the week is likely to be October's personal consumption expenditures deflator (Thu). It should confirm the ongoing moderation in consumer price inflation shown by October's CPI and PPI reports (chart). The core PPI final demand for personal consumption was down to just 2.5% y/y in October. It does not include rent inflation, which is still high but heading lower. The

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Set To Vault To New Bull Market High

Nov 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 peaked this year on July 31 at 4588.96 (chart). It closed today at 4547.38, which just happens to be the resistance line connecting the July 31 high with the all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3, 2022. It could easily rise to this year's high, which is just shy of our 4600 year-end target by vaulting over the resistance line.

Ed Yardeni

A Whiff Of Deflation

Nov 16, 2023 2 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

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