Market Call

Market Call: Back To Higher For Longer?

Oct 6, 2024 2 min read

Remember the "higher for longer" mantra about the outlook for the federal funds rate (FFR) during the spring? It turned into "lower and sooner" this summer in response to the economy's soft patch. After Friday's strong employment report, the consensus might pivot to "no rush to ease further" during the fall. We can't rule out "higher for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: October Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 29, 2024 3 min read paid

We asked the very same question at the start of September, and were hard pressed to come up with an answer. We concluded: "So perhaps, the path of least resistance will continue to drive stock prices higher. We are still expecting a yearend rally to 5800 on the S&P 500, but it could already be underway." The S&P 500 rose 1.6% during September

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: The Next Surprise

Sep 22, 2024 3 min read

So far, September isn't living up to its bad reputation for the stock market now that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are at record highs. At the start of the month, on September 2, we asked, "What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" We wrote: "We are hard pressed to find what could possibly go wrong in September. So perhaps, the path of least

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: The Worst & The Best Of Times

Sep 15, 2024 2 min read

A Tale of Two Cities by Charles Dickens famously begins, ''It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.'' Two weeks ago was the worst week for the stock market so far this year. Last week was the best week for the stock market so far this year. In the July 28 Quicktakes, we wrote: "Our hunch is that the stock market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: September Is Here. What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sep 2, 2024 3 min read paid

September has a history of being the worst month of the year for the stock market (chart). It's hard to imagine that it will be a bad one this year since the Fed is widely expected to start its latest monetary easing cycle on September 18 with a 25bps cut in the federal funds rate (FFR). In addition, the FOMC will release its latest Summary of Economic Projections

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Did Powell Just Pour Gasoline On Stock Market's Fire?

Aug 25, 2024 3 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday was unambiguously dovish, as we observed in that day's QT. It was also unambiguously bullish for the stock market because it confirmed widespread expectations that September's cut in the federal funds rate is in the bag and will be followed by several more cuts. However, the stock market may have discounted most of these

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Bungee Jump

Aug 18, 2024 3 min read

Last week's economic data confirmed that consumers are still consuming, the labor market is fine, small business owners are more optimistic, and inflation is still moderating. On Friday, at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is likely to reiterate that the economy is performing well and that inflation is getting closer to the Fed's 2.0% target. He is likely to support market expectations that

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Earnings Reporting Season Likely To Broaden The Stock Market Rally

Jul 14, 2024 3 min read paid

We've previously written that our number one concern for the stock market is unsettling domestic and global political turmoil. The attempt to assassinate former President Donald Trump on Saturday heightened anxiety about political violence at home as the November elections approach. On the global stage, the violence of the wars between Ukraine and Russia and in the Middle East seems to be escalating. Then again, the stock market

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Bad Breadth Again

Jun 23, 2024 3 min read

The stock market has a bad breadth problem again. For a while, it seemed to be attributable to the outperformance of the Magnificent-7. Many other stocks performed well, but not as well as the Mag-7. More recently, the outperformance seems to be narrowing to the Magnificent One, i.e., Nvidia (chart). Technical analysts are warning that this development increases the risks of a selloff in the market led by technology

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: From Dow 40,000 To Infinity & Beyond

May 19, 2024 3 min read

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 40,000 on Friday for the first time. It's on track to rise 50% to 60,000 by 2030, in our opinion (chart). The S&P 500 should rise by as much to 8000. That target could be achieved with a forward P/E of 20 and forward earnings at $400 per share, up 60% from an estimated $250 per

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear, Again.

May 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Nothing to worry about? The geopolitical risk premium in the price of oil has dropped sharply since early April. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil slipped to $82.96 from a recent peak of $91.17 on Friday, April 5 (chart). Stock market sentiment indicators have turned less bullish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective. Last week's economic indicators were on the weak side.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Loop-The-Loop

Apr 28, 2024 2 min read

Keep your seat belts on: There may be a few more loop-the-loops in the stock market's rollercoaster ride. Or at least wear a neck brace. It's been a wild ride recently. After peaking at a record high on March 28, the S&P 500 plunged below its 50-day moving average and rose last week closing just below this average (chart). Geopolitical risks remain high, though

Ed Yardeni

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