Market Call

Market Call: Latest Mideast War Raises Geopolitical Risks

Oct 7, 2023 2 min read paid

Hamas launched a coordinated surprise attack on Israel today. The timing suggests that Iran's mullahs instigated their surrogates in Gaza, hoping to disrupt the peace negotiations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Israel will undoubtedly launch a massive counter0ffensive. The question is whether Hezbollah will open up a second front on Israel's north. Geopolitical crises in the Middle East have usually caused oil prices to rise and

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Wild Bunch

Oct 1, 2023 3 min read

Just after the S&P 500 nearly hit our year-end target of 4600 ahead of schedule on July 31, we concluded that the index might fall to its 200-day moving average, which is currently around 4200. It could easily do so during October since it closed at 4288 on Friday. Then we see a yearend Santa Claus rally back to 4600, or close to that level. That's

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Powell Says Be Careful

Sep 24, 2023 2 min read paid

In his presser last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned "careful" and "carefully" 16 times mostly to describe how the Fed will proceed from here. That sounds like good advice for investors right now. When he was asked about the impact of "external factors" on Fed policy and the economy, he provided a list of five troublesome developments: the UAW strike, a possible government

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Isn't Over Just Yet

Sep 17, 2023 2 min read

September is usually a nice month weather-wise. After the dog days of summer, the temperature starts to cool with occasional hot spells reminiscent of the summer. On the other hand, the month can be a rough one for stocks. The S&P 500 is down 1.3% mtd so far. That's not so bad. Then again, the month's worst performing sector is Information Technology, down

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Waiting For The Verdict

Sep 10, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has been marking time recently around its 50-day moving average waiting for a verdict (chart). The jury is no longer debating whether the economy is falling into a recession. The issue has been resolved. The economy is growing. But now the debate is whether it is growing too strongly so that inflation stops moderating. Or will it slow down so that inflation can continue to

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Isn't Always A Bad Month For Stocks

Sep 3, 2023 2 min read

September is the Rodney Dangerfield of the 12 months; it gets no respect because it has been the worst month for stocks on average since 1928 (chart). However, it has been up 45% of the time since then with a solid average gain of 3.2%. Even if the market is down this month, September is a good month for picking apples and it could be a good month for

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bond Vigilantes Calling The Shots For Stocks

Aug 27, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 has fluctuated around its 50-day moving average recently as the 10-year Treasury bond yield has done the same around 4.25%, which was last year's high on October 24 (chart). Sentiment is bearish in the bond market. It's less bullish in the stock market than it was during July. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday was

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: "No, Mr. Bond, I Expect You To Die!"

Aug 20, 2023 3 min read paid

Does the Fed really want to see the yield curve "disinvert" with the 10-year Treasury bond yield (currently 4.26%) rising up to the 2-year Treasury note yield (currently 4.92%) (chart)? We will find out on Friday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference. If Powell wants to calm the bond market down, he should acknowledge that inflation has

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: September Is Coming!

Aug 6, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is down 2.4% from its bull market high of 4588.96 on July 31 through Friday's close (chart). It ran into resistance at the top end of its bullish channel, which could take the index to 4400-5000 by the end of this year. We are sticking with 4600, suggesting that there isn't much upside for the rest of this year.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Fundamentals Good. Technicals Bad.

Jun 25, 2023 2 min read paid

In our previous QT (The Week Ahead), we observed that this week's economic indicators should be good for the stock and bond markets, confirming that the economy is still growing while inflation is continuing to moderate. Industry analysts seem to agree with us as their S&P 500 forward earnings turned more optimistic on the outlook for S&P 500 earnings recently (chart). However, in coming

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Bulls Gaining Ground In Tug-of-War With Bears

Jun 19, 2023 3 min read paid

The bulls continue to gain ground in our tug-of-war with the bears. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 is now up 23.3% since October 12 to 4425.84 through last Thursday. That was the highest level since April 20, 2022. It was only 7.7% below the January 3, 2022 record high. (2) Measures of breadth are improving. The percentage of S&P 500 companies

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Young Bull

Jun 11, 2023 2 min read paid

We have some good news and some bad news for the bulls. The good news is that the S&P 500 is up 20.0% since October 12, which is widely viewed as the definition of a bull market (table). The bad news is that a picture of a bull is featured in the latest Barron's cover story titled, "Don't Fear the Bull Market.

Ed Yardeni

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