Purchasing Managers

US Economy Is Still Resilient, But Tariffs Pose Risks

Mar 20, 2025 3 min read

Today's batch of economic data releases was positive on balance but also suggests that Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 could dampen future growth. Stock prices seesawed between gains and losses, while Treasury yields slid a bit. Markets continue to suggest that economic growth outside of the US is increasingly likely to improve while downside risks to US growth are rising. As a result, US stock valuation multiples are

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Vigilantes Put 5% Yield In Crosshairs

Jan 7, 2025 3 min read paid

The US economy continues to roar. December's ISM purchasing managers survey showed that services activity remains strong. The JOLTS data, albeit a bit stale from November, showed job openings jumped. That aligned with the recent rise in measures of business and consumer confidence. So why did stocks turn lower today? The answer lies with the bond market. The prices-paid index in the ISM nonmanufacturing PMI jumped from 58.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Let The Good Times Roll

Dec 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Salesforce beat Q3 earnings expectations today, but that's not what drove the company's shares 11% higher. CEO Marc Benioff did that by touting the company's AI-powered chatbots on today's quarterly earnings call. He sparked renewed AI optimism that lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to new record highs. AI differs from the dotcom mania of the late 1990s. It is

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 2-6

Dec 1, 2024 3 min read paid

We expect to see more animal spirits during the economic week ahead. It is chock-full of updates of labor market indicators, as well as soft data (i.e., surveys) on business in the manufacturing and services sectors. The grand finale will be November's employment report on Friday. We are expecting this week's indicators to beat expectations, boosting the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and sending yields a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: November 25-29

Nov 24, 2024 3 min read paid

The week ahead is jampacked with economic indicator releases, all in the first three days before the Thanksgiving holiday. They are likely to confirm that we have much to be thankful for this year. The US economy and stock market are doing well. The most widely anticipated recession of all time has been a no-show for a third year. The S&P 500 is up 25.9% ytd and

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Risk On, Risk Off

Aug 1, 2024 2 min read paid

Today was a good day for the diehard hard-landers and the "stag-disinflationists." They're probably high fiving each other. We are in neither camp–we expect a continuation of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., a growing economy with subdued inflation. We're high fiving over today’s productivity and labor costs report. In any event, bond investors are certainly enjoying themselves; the 10-year yield fell 12 basis

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

US Purchasing Managers Report Weakening Economy

May 6, 2024 2 min read paid

Among last week’s batch of weaker-than-expected economic indicators were April’s M-PMI and NM-PMI compiled by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Both fell below 50.0 during April, with the former at 49.2 and the latter 49.4 (chart). Here’s more:

Ed Yardeni

Powell On "60 Minutes"

Feb 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Fed Chair Jerome Powell wants to make sure we all get the message he delivered at his presser last Wednesday. So he appeared in an interview on "60 Minutes" Sunday night. His simple message is that almost all the members of the FOMC expect to be cutting the federal funds rate (FFR) this year. They are happy with the progress that has been made in bringing inflation down

Ed Yardeni

Soft Landing Remains In Play and Bullish

Dec 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 is taking a rest just north of 4550 and south of 4600. Stock investors are waiting for November's jobs report on Friday to decide what to do next. Meanwhile, bond investors aren't waiting to buy more bonds. They liked the latest batch of economic indicators and drove the 10-year Treasury bond yield below 4.25%. Here is a brief overview of

Ed Yardeni

Stormy September So Far

Sep 7, 2023 1 min read paid

Good news is bad news again. The stock and bond markets sold off yesterday following better-than-expected readings for August's NM-PMI. In addition, the prices-paid indexes for both the NM-PMI and M-PMI increased in August heightening fears that inflation may have stopped moderating (chart). We disagree since both remain well below last summer's peaks. Today, Q2's revised productivity and costs report showed that hourly compensation

Ed Yardeni

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