Recession

Leading Indicators Seeing Recession Next Spring

Nov 23, 2022 1 min read paid

Ed Yardeni

Housing: Multi-Family Boom vs Single-Family Bust

Nov 22, 2022 1 min read paid

Single-family housing activity is falling into a recession. Single-family housing starts fell 29.5% ytd through October. Housing downturns have been major contributors to most recessions in the past. This time, though, strength in multi-family starts is offsetting some of the weakness in single-family starts. Single-family starts has accounted for only 51% of residential construction put in place over the past 10 years, down from close to 70% prior to

Ed Yardeni

Industry Analysts Cutting S&P 500 Earnings

Nov 9, 2022 3 min read paid Featured

The following is an excerpt from our November 9, 2022 Morning Briefing. Industry analysts have yet to get the recession memo. They are still estimating that S&P 500 revenues are growing. However, they’ve been reading the memo about the squeeze on profit margins from rising costs. As a result, many of them have been reducing their estimates for the profit margins of the S&P 500

Ed Yardeni

Small Business Owners Have Some Bad News

Nov 8, 2022 1 min read

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its October survey of small business owners today. They remain pessimistic about the general business outlook. They are still struggling to find workers and to keep them. In any event, their labor costs are rising rapidly and forcing them to raise their prices. They've been sucked into the economy's wage-price spiral. During October, 32% of small business owners

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Earnings Estimates Are Falling

Nov 4, 2022 1 min read

Industry analysts who cover the S&P 500 companies are responding to the current earnings reporting season for Q3-2022 by continuing to cut their earnings estimates for Q4-2022 and all four quarters of next year (charts below). They've been doing so through the last week of October when several of the MegaCap-8 reported disappointing earnings. The 344 of the S&P 500 companies that have reported

Ed Yardeni

Another Weak Regional Business Survey

Oct 27, 2022 1 min read Featured

With the exception of the 2.6% (saar) increase in Q3's real GDP, the other more forward-looking economic indicators released today were on the weak side. That might explain why the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields eased a bit this morning. In the stock market, some of the mega money that is coming out of the MegaCap-8 today is going into the DJIA-30. The former continue to miss

Ed Yardeni

The Housing Recession Deepens

Oct 19, 2022 1 min read paid

Fed officials have described the housing downturn as a "correction." For example, in an October 6 speech, Fed Governor Christopher J Waller said, "While this market correction could be fairly mild, I cannot dismiss the possibility of a much larger drop in demand and house prices before the market normalizes." He also said that "after mortgage rates stabilize, their drag on housing demand should ebb.

Ed Yardeni

No Recession In Banking & Production

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read paid

The S&P had another good day today following relatively upbeat reports from the banks about their business. The two largest banks in America say that the economy is still growing. On Monday, BOA CEO Brian Moynihan said, “Consumers are spending, they have money, they are employed and they have good credit.” On Friday, at the end of last week, even JPM CEO Jamie Dimon acknowledged, "Consumers are

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Oct. 17-21

Oct 15, 2022 1 min read paid

Investors will focus on this week's batch of Q3 earnings reports and forward earnings guidance from Corporate America. They'll also be watching interest rates which might be buffeted by more loose lips on the "Federal Open Mouth Committee." The FOMC's blackout period doesn't start until Friday. The only inflation news this week will be included in October's regional

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, October 10-14

Oct 8, 2022 1 min read

Monday is Columbus Day and the bond market will be closed. But stock investors can start the week worrying about September's PPI (Wed.) and CPI (Thu.). Both should confirm that they peaked earlier this year, but the moderation in inflation in both may not be enough to stop the Fed from concluding that more rate hikes are needed to subdue inflationary pressures. The PPI may show more moderation

Ed Yardeni

Another Awful Risk-Off Week

Sep 24, 2022 1 min read paid

The bad news for the stock market this past week actually started on September 16 in the morning after FedEx delivered a terrible preannouncement about the current quarter. The package delivery giant said in a statement the night before that it expects Q1 earnings, excluding some items, to be $3.44 per share, or roughly 33% below the average analyst estimate of $5.10. In addition, FedEx withdrew its earnings

Ed Yardeni

TINA-TAR: There Is No Alternative To A Recession?

Sep 23, 2022 2 min read

The financial markets seem to have concluded that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has decided to go Volcker on us. During 1979-1981, then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker let interest rates soar to levels that caused a recession. He did so to bring inflation down (charts below). During his press conference on Wednesday, Powell unambiguously reiterated the hawkish message of his Jackson Hole speech on August 26. In other words, he strongly suggested

Ed Yardeni

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