S&P 500

Happy Old & New Years!

Dec 31, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 rose 24.2% last year after falling 19.4% during 2022 (chart). Since the start of the data in 1928, years with gains of over 20% were followed by years of 5.9% gains on average. Excluding recession years, the second-year gains averaged 9.7%. Losses during recession years averaged 10.1%. Down years for the market are more likely than not to be associated

Ed Yardeni

Another Bowl Of Mixed Nuts

Dec 7, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 is consolidating its gains since the October 27 bottom. In recent days, its been trading between 4550 and 4600 (chart). Investors are trying to ascertain which way the economy is headed in 2024. We remain in the soft landing camp. Today's data continued to show that consumers have jobs. However, the latest reading on consumer credit borrowing was weak. Consider the following: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Thanks!

Nov 22, 2023 2 min read

We wish you a great Thanksgiving Day tomorrow with your family and friends. We thank you for your interest in our research service. We are thankful that 2023 has turned out to be a better year than 2022, as we predicted. The S&P 500 is up 18.7% ytd following last year's decline of 19.4%. We will be thankful if 2024 is another good year

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Set To Vault To New Bull Market High

Nov 20, 2023 2 min read paid

The S&P 500 peaked this year on July 31 at 4588.96 (chart). It closed today at 4547.38, which just happens to be the resistance line connecting the July 31 high with the all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3, 2022. It could easily rise to this year's high, which is just shy of our 4600 year-end target by vaulting over the resistance line.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Refreshing Pause For Bulls & Reindeer

Nov 19, 2023 2 min read paid

The federal funds rate futures market is anticipating two 25bps cuts in the federal funds rate over the next 12 months (chart). That makes sense to us and is consistent with the September FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections. More rate cuts could occur if a recession is coming our way in 2024, but that's not our forecast. We still think that the 10-year Treasury bond yield

Steve Rybka

Another Happy Day For Bond & Stock Investors

Nov 14, 2023 2 min read paid

As inflation continues to descend, bond and stock prices are ascending. Today's lower-than-expected CPI inflation report confirms that inflation is continuing to moderate. So the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell to 4.44%, boosting the valuation multiples of stocks. The S&P 500 is now up 9.2% above its recent correction low on October 27 (chart). Our yearend target of 4600 for the index could be

Ed Yardeni

Weakening Global Economic Growth Is A Mixed Bowl Of Nuts

Nov 8, 2023 2 min read paid

We are still aiming for 4600 on the S&P 500 before the end of this year. That's only a 5.0% increase from today's close. Heck, the S&P 500 was up 5.9% just last week. However, that was clearly a combination of a short-covering rally in both the bond and stock markets. It was also a buying panic in the bond

Ed Yardeni

Everything Is OK Except For...

Oct 24, 2023 2 min read paid

The Q3 earnings reporting season is underway and going well with Microsoft delivering a big upside earnings surprise after today's close. We still expect that S&P 500 earnings per share rose to a record high during the quarter. That's confirmed by S&P 500 forward earnings (chart). Inflation continues to moderate as confirmed by today's Richmond Fed regional business survey'

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: The Wild Bunch

Oct 1, 2023 3 min read

Just after the S&P 500 nearly hit our year-end target of 4600 ahead of schedule on July 31, we concluded that the index might fall to its 200-day moving average, which is currently around 4200. It could easily do so during October since it closed at 4288 on Friday. Then we see a yearend Santa Claus rally back to 4600, or close to that level. That's

Ed Yardeni

Talking Heads Talk Stocks Down

Sep 26, 2023 2 min read paid

We were surprised that stock prices didn't drop yesterday along with bond prices. So we aren't surprised to see stock prices down today. Contributing to the selloff was JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who warned interest rates may need to rise further to subdue inflation. In an interview with The Times of India, he said that the Fed might have to raise the federal funds rate

Ed Yardeni

Strikes and Shutdowns and Bond Yields, Oh My!

Sep 25, 2023 2 min read paid

The stock market held up surprisingly well today under the circumstances: The UAW strike is shutting down more auto production. The federal government is heading toward a shutdown on October 1. Moody’s Investors Service warned in a note today that a US government shutdown would be a “credit negative” event for the country. The 10-year Treasury yield surged by more than 10bps to 4.55%, the highest since 2007

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Powell Says Be Careful

Sep 24, 2023 2 min read paid

In his presser last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned "careful" and "carefully" 16 times mostly to describe how the Fed will proceed from here. That sounds like good advice for investors right now. When he was asked about the impact of "external factors" on Fed policy and the economy, he provided a list of five troublesome developments: the UAW strike, a possible government

Ed Yardeni

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