Sentiment

Was That The Bottom?

Mar 17, 2025 3 min read paid

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq might have bottomed on Thursday, but we doubt it for reasons we get into below. Both indexes rallied nicely on Friday and today. That action jibes with the extremely bearish sentiment readings of the bull/bear ratios compiled by Investors Intelligence and AAII. Last week, the former was down to 0.80, the lowest since the 2022 bear market, and the latter

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

A Bond Vigilante In Trump's Court

Feb 6, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump 2.0 is borrowing a page from the Clinton administration's playbook, specifically the one in which Robert Rubin and James Carville warned Clinton that he had to respect the power of the Bond Vigilantes and maintain fiscal discipline. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent yesterday said that he and President Trump are less concerned with the federal funds rate (FFR) and instead are hoping to contain the 10-year

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Sentiment Remains Remarkably Bearish, Which Is Bullish

Jan 22, 2025 2 min read

Stock price indexes are back at record highs. Yet the stock market's sentiment indicators have turned stubbornly bearish over the past couple of weeks. We noted this development a week ago and concluded that it might be a bullish signal from a contrarian perspective. We aren't sure why there are more bears and fewer bulls recently. Last week, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 4.

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: December 9-13

Dec 8, 2024 3 min read paid

The economic week ahead is chockful of inflation updates. We're expecting stickier inflation readings that should ruffle the feathers of the Fed's doves. The FOMC is in a blackout period ahead of its December 17-18 meeting, meaning FOMC members won't be able to comment publicly. If the CPI news changes their minds about cutting the federal funds rate (FFR), they'll have to

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Animal Spirits Are Back & Boosting the Roaring 2020s! Fueling A Meltup Too?

Nov 10, 2024 3 min read paid

Just after Donald Trump won the presidential race on November 8, 2016, we observed that the economy and stock market were charged up with "animal spirits," a term coined by John Maynard Keynes meaning spontaneous optimism. Animal spirits are back now that Trump won a second term on November 5 and in a clean sweep if the Republicans win the House, which seems likely. The stock market jumped

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Front Cover Curse

Oct 22, 2024 1 min read

We've been recommending overweighting the US in global equity portfolios since 2010. We still are, and it is still working (chart). We started writing about the Roaring 2020s in the US in 2020. For example, on August 11, 2020, we wrote: "We live in interesting, though not unprecedented, times. The Roaring 1920s could be a precedent for the Roaring 2020s. As Mark Twain observed: 'History doesn’

Ed Yardeni

Market Technicals: Is Sentiment Bearish Enough To Signal A Market Bottom?

Sep 8, 2024 2 min read

We asked Joe Feshbach for an update of his take on the stock market from a trading perspective: "Even with the recent decline in the stock market, I’m still recommending a cautious/defensive approach to stocks. My two biggest concerns have been the optimistic levels that the sentiment indicators have reached and the parabolic moves in technology charts followed by their significant recent declines. We’ve had a

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Market Call: Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear, Again.

May 5, 2024 2 min read paid

Nothing to worry about? The geopolitical risk premium in the price of oil has dropped sharply since early April. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil slipped to $82.96 from a recent peak of $91.17 on Friday, April 5 (chart). Stock market sentiment indicators have turned less bullish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective. Last week's economic indicators were on the weak side.

Ed Yardeni

Tanks A Lot

Apr 17, 2024 2 min read paid

The war premium in the crude oil market fell again today. Fears of a significant disruption to global oil production continued to dissipate this week. That's even though Israel has threatened to attack Iran in response to the aerial attack launched by Iran against Israel on Saturday. The price of a barrel of Brent crude oil peaked recently at $91.17 0n April 5 (chart). It was down

Ed Yardeni

'Knock On Wood'

Apr 3, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke at Stanford University today about the economy and monetary policy. He said, "I think we've gotten to what is, knock on wood, a pretty good place." He added, "We're using our tools to try to bring inflation down the rest of the way to 2%, while all the while keeping the economy strong as well." Today'

Ed Yardeni

Yikes: Everyone Is Bullish!

Mar 13, 2024 2 min read

During the week of October 11, 2022, the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio (BBR) fell to a cyclical low of 0.57 (chart). The previous bear market bottomed the next day on October 12, 2022. The BBR reading back then was the lowest since the Great Financial Crisis. We turned bullish in early November figuring that sentiment was much too bearish and that the most widely expected recession of all

Ed Yardeni

We Have Nothing To Fear But Nothing To Fear

Mar 6, 2024 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell was very reassuring during his congressional testimony today. He said the economy is fine, inflation is moderating, and interest rates have probably peaked. He also said the Fed is likely to lower interest rates, but won't rush to do so: "We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it

Ed Yardeni

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