SPX

Good News Bears

Oct 7, 2022 1 min read paid

The good news is that the S&P 500 rose 1.5% this past week. The bad news is that it gave back almost all of the rally that occurred during the first two days of the week and is only 1.5% above the bear market's low of last Friday. This week showed that bad (good) economic news is good (bad) for the stock market. Monday

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: BBR Back Under 1.00

Sep 21, 2022 1 min read paid

Given the recent action in the stock market, it's not surprising to see that the Bull/Bear Ratio compiled by our friends at Investors Intelligence dropped to 0.96 during the September 20 week from 1.15 the previous week (chart below). In the past, readings of 1.00 or less have proven to be contrarian signals of good times to buy for long-term investors.

Ed Yardeni

BBR Edges Up To 1.15

Sep 14, 2022 1 min read paid

We are predicting that the S&P 500 will remain range-bound for a while between the June 16 low of 3666 and the August 16 high of 4300. The index closed at 3946 today, around the middle of the range. Sentiment remains very bearish, which is bullish from a contrarian perspective: (1) The Bull-Bear Ratio climbed to 1.15 this week after falling the prior three weeks from 1.

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Home In The Range

Sep 11, 2022 1 min read paid

August's CPI will be released Tuesday morning. We think that last week's 3.6% rally in the S&P 500 occurred because investors started to anticipate a significant easing of inflationary pressures (table below). We know that gasoline prices plummeted and used car prices declined last month. There are even a few signs that rent inflation may be cooling off. If the market rallies on

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Revenues & Earnings At Record Highs

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read

Our weekly forward metrics for S&P 500 revenues, earnings, and the profit margin continue to accurately track their quarterly counterparts (chart below). Revenues and earnings both rose to record highs during Q2, up 12.1% and 9.5% y/y, respectively. Q2 earnings per share rose to a record $231. S&P 500's profit margin was 13.4% during Q2, near recent record highs. So

Ed Yardeni

Buffett Is Bullish While His Ratio Is Bearish

Aug 20, 2022 1 min read paid

Yesterday, the Motley Fool reported that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway was on a buying spree during the recent bear market. Apparently, the Oracle of Omaha isn't concerned that his famous Buffett Ratio remains in bearish territory. In a December 2001 Fortune article, Buffett observed that when the ratio of the value of all stocks traded in the US to nominal GNP exceeds 200%, its best to

Ed Yardeni

Revaluing Earnings

Jul 30, 2022 1 min read paid

In the past few weeks, industry analysts started to shave their S&P 500 earnings forecasts for this year and next year. Last Wednesday, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by 75bps to 2.25%-2.50%. On Thursday, we learned that real GDP fell for a second quarter in a row marking a technical recession, though a mild one so far. So, naturally, the stock market has

Ed Yardeni

Is the Stock Market Discounting Peak Inflation?

Jul 20, 2022 1 min read

The S&P 500 rose yesterday by 2.76% to 3936.69. It is up 7.4% from its June 16 low of 3666.77. At that low, the index was 23.4% below its January 4 record high. Now it is down 17.9% from the record high. The S&P 500 index rose above its 50-day moving average yesterday. The Nasdaq also rose above its 50-day

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500 Sectors: Reversals Of Fortune

Jul 16, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 fell 23.6% from January 3 to June 16. It is up 5.4% since then through Friday's close. Is this just a short-covering rally in a bear market? We will be discussing this topic in Monday's Morning Briefing. For now consider the following: (1) So far, the stock market’s rally since June 16 has been led by the biggest

Ed Yardeni

The MegaCap-8’s Impact on the S&P 500

Jul 5, 2022 2 min read

The MegaCap-8 stocks were also the Magnificent-8 during 2020 and most of 2021. Their businesses greatly boomed during the pandemic when many people worked, schooled, and entertained at home. The MegaCap-8 include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Netflix, NVIDIA, and Tesla. During H1-2022, they lost a lot of their magnificence and market capitalization, and weighed heavily on the S&P 500. Let’s review their rise and fall: (1)

Ed Yardeni

Page 1 of 1