Tariffs

More Bad News Caused By Trump Turmoil 2.0

Apr 3, 2025 3 min read members

Trump Tariff Turmoil 2.0 has caused a stock market selloff that is in full swing. The Nasdaq fell around 5% and the S&P 500 nearly 4% in the first hour of trading. The 10-year Treasury yield sank 16bps to 4.03% as recession fears outweigh inflation fears. Yesterday's Liberation Day festivities in the Rose Garden set off a freefall in stock prices on increasing fears

Ed Yardeni

Stocks Greet Liberation Day With Bronx Cheers

Apr 2, 2025 3 min read

President Donald Trump and his guests at the Rose Garden today celebrated Liberation Day. Stock investors won't be celebrating tomorrow based on the plunge in futures prices tied to the DJIA, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq-100. The Stock Market Vigilantes are not happy. Trump announced that on April 5, his administration will impose a 10% tariff rate on all imports from all of America's

Ed Yardeni

Our New S&P 500 Earnings & Price Targets Under Trump's Reign Of Tariffs

Mar 31, 2025 4 min read

Yesterday, we reduced the odds of our Roaring 2020s base-case scenario from 65% to 55% and raised the odds of a stagflationary scenario from 35% to 45%. The latter includes the possibility of a shallow recession later this year, following a buy-in-advance shopping spree during April and May. We did so because Trump's Reign of Tariffs imposed a 25% permanent tariff on imported autos and auto parts last

Ed Yardeni

Trump’s Reign Of Tariffs: Stagflation Odds Up, S&P 500 Target Down

Mar 30, 2025 11 min read

YRI Bulletin Board. Our colleague Eric Wallerstein is taking a leave of absence. He has accepted a position on the President’s Council of Economic Advisers. We wish him all the best. The following is a reprint of our Morning Briefing which we sent to our institutional investors today. We wanted to share it with our QuickTakes community of individual investors and business professionals. Your comments are always welcome. Reign

Ed Yardeni

LIBERATION WEEK: March 31-April 4

Mar 30, 2025 3 min read paid

Trump's Reign of Tariffs will likely dominate the economic week ahead. The big event will occur on April 2 (dubbed "Liberation Day" by President Donald Trump). That's when the administration will impose reciprocal tariffs on a number of America's trading partners. However, it's very likely that tariff announcements will continue after that date, as bilateral negotiations are teased out and

Ed Yardeni

REPRINT: 'The Protectionist Road To Depression.' Déjà Vu All Over Again?

Mar 28, 2025 20 min read

💡This is a timely reprint of a September 9, 1985 Topical Study by Edward Yardeni titled "The Protectionist Road To Depression." The original with charts can be found here. It is very relevant to today's debate over the trade policies of the Trump administration, which is scheduled to announce reciprocal tariffs on most of America's major trading partners on April 2. Will they retaliate

Ed Yardeni

Trump Slams On The Auto Tariff Brakes

Mar 27, 2025 2 min read

President Trump's Wednesday night announcement of a 25% tariff on imports of foreign motor vehicles caused a selloff in auto stocks today. Components such as engines and transmissions are also impacted, while previously trade-compliant parts from Canada and Mexico will be slapped with tariffs at a later date. At the moment, the 25% tariff is expected to be on top of those coming on April 2. That would

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Helter-Skelter

Mar 24, 2025 3 min read

"Helter-skelter" is a term used to describe disorderly haste, confusion, or chaos. That seems to be descriptive of the modus operandi of President Donald Trump's trade policy. Then again, perhaps there is method to the madness. Perhaps it is Trump's approach to the art of the deal. So the chaos is a feature and not a bug of his style of dealmaking. The technique

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

'Liberation Day' Coming One Day After April Fools' Day

Mar 18, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market rally of the past two days faded today. The S&P 500 fell -1.1%, just shy of correction territory. Even Nvidia fell 4.3%, even though the company announced new chips and a strategic collaboration with GM today. The 10-year US Treasury bond yield has been hovering around 4.30% since late February. The price of gold rose to another record high (chart). We suspect

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Will Trump Tariff Turmoil Dim The Economy's Lights?

Mar 11, 2025 3 min read paid

The stock market was whipsawed today by geopolitical developments. Stocks fell this morning when President Donald Trump announced a 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum. They then recovered after Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire deal (pending Russia's acceptance). Incremental progress on a tariff-avoiding deal between the US and Canada late in the day provided an additional boost. But stock prices still closed down a bit for

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Are Tariffs Inflationary Or Deflationary? Are They Really ‘A Beautiful Thing?’

Mar 5, 2025 3 min read paid

Until recently, the message from the bond market has been that tariffs are deflationary because they depress global economic activity. As Warren Buffett recently observed, they are a tax that consumers, importers, and/or exporters pay. It is widely presumed that tariff increases have a transitory, one-shot, price-rising impact. Indeed, on Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted that the Chinese "will eat any tariffs that go on."

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Bond Yields Do A Backflip On CPI & PPI, Stocks Rally On Tariff News

Feb 13, 2025 3 min read paid

The 10-year Treasury bond yield jumped by 10bps on Wednesday's hotter-than-expected January CPI report (chart). In his congressional testimony on Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the Fed has more work to do to get inflation down. Today, the bond yield fell 10bps on a hotter-than expected January PPI report and an upward revision in December's PPI. Huh? You read that right. Some of the

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

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