Technicals

Yes, Virginia, There Really Is a Santa Claus Rally

Oct 18, 2022 1 min read

Since 1928, the S&P 500 fell 1.1% on average during September, by far the worst performance of any month. October, November, and December were up 0.5%, 0.6%, and 1.4% on average (chart). Yes, Virginia, there really is a Santa Claus rally. Apparently, it tends to be even more likely during mid-term election years. A September 23 post on TheStreet reported, "According to the

Ed Yardeni

Feshbach's Trading Call

Oct 16, 2022 1 min read paid

Joe Feshbach, our market consultant, is neutral about the short-term trading prospects for the S&P 500. He wasn’t surprised by Friday’s downward reversal of Thursday’s upside reversal. “The part that doesn’t fit and makes me uncomfortable is that breadth continues to be just awful, continually outperforming on the downside and underperforming on the upside.”

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Home In The Range

Sep 11, 2022 1 min read paid

August's CPI will be released Tuesday morning. We think that last week's 3.6% rally in the S&P 500 occurred because investors started to anticipate a significant easing of inflationary pressures (table below). We know that gasoline prices plummeted and used car prices declined last month. There are even a few signs that rent inflation may be cooling off. If the market rallies on

Ed Yardeni

Market Call: Less Risky

Sep 3, 2022 2 min read

The bears say that the 17.4% rally in the S&P 500 between June 16 and August 16 was a short-covering rally. Now that the index is down 8.8% from its recent high, they say the bear market isn't over and will soon take out its recent low. The bulls (including us) believe that the latest bear market's bottom will hold, and won&

Ed Yardeni

Well Below the 200-Day Moving Average

Jun 19, 2022 1 min read

Some widely followed technical and sentiment indicators suggest that the stock market is oversold and due for a rally. Consider the following: (1) The S&P 500 was extremely overbought last year. Around mid-year 2021, more than 90% of the stocks in the index were trading above their 200-day moving averages (dma). There has been a significant reversal of fortune since then with only 11.3% of the S&

Ed Yardeni

Corrections Now & Then

May 11, 2022 2 min read

The S&P 500 is down 18.0% since it peaked at a record high on January 3. The current selloff is reminiscent of the 19.8% correction during the last three months of 2018 through Christmas Eve.

Ed Yardeni