Unemployment

Will The Fed Join The Rate-Cutting Pack Of Central Banks?

Jun 6, 2024 2 min read

US stocks rose to record highs on Wednesday. European stocks did the same today after the ECB lowered its official interest rate to 3.75%, down from a record 4.00%, where it has been since September 2023 and the first cut since 2019. Leading the rate-cutting pack of the major central banks was the People's Bank of China, which lowered its prime rate last year on August

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

The Economic Week Ahead: June 3-7

Jun 2, 2024 2 min read paid

This week, May's employment report (Fri) is likely to be the most important one. We expect the labor market cooled a bit last month, tempering wage growth but not signaling a looming employment-led recession. Less profit margin pressure from wage inflation should boost company earnings, while the solid jobs market should continue to fuel consumer spending. If so, that's bullish for stocks. Here’s what we’

Ed Yardeni
Eric Wallerstein

Another Bowl Of Mixed Nuts

Dec 7, 2023 2 min read

The S&P 500 is consolidating its gains since the October 27 bottom. In recent days, its been trading between 4550 and 4600 (chart). Investors are trying to ascertain which way the economy is headed in 2024. We remain in the soft landing camp. Today's data continued to show that consumers have jobs. However, the latest reading on consumer credit borrowing was weak. Consider the following: (1)

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: August 28 - September 1

Aug 27, 2023 2 min read paid

Another fun-filled and data-packed week ahead. Hard to believe that the summer is almost over. That just gets us closer to a yearend stock market rally, but only if price and wage inflation rates continue to moderate, employment growth slows, and consumers stop binging. That's our outlook currently. We will get plenty of numbers this week which will either confirm or challenge whether we are still on the

Ed Yardeni

July's Consumer Confidence Up As Jobs Remain Plentiful

Jul 25, 2023 1 min read paid

Among the earliest monthly indicators of the US jobs market is the consumer confidence survey conducted by the Conference Board. July’s survey came out on Tuesday. The Consumer Confidence Index rose smartly this month, with solid gains in both its current conditions and expectations components (chart). Furthermore, consider the following: (1) The survey’s “jobs plentiful” series edged up to 46.9% (chart). That’s down from readings of

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: June 26-30

Jun 24, 2023 2 min read paid

May's personal income will be released on Friday. It is likely to be the week's most important economic indicator. It should show that consumers' incomes continue to grow, while inflation is still moderating. We know that our Earned Income Proxy for private wages and salaries in personal income rose to a record high in May (chart). We also expect to see that receipts of unearned

Ed Yardeni

Two Known Knowns About the Economy

May 31, 2023 2 min read paid

Investors are confused: Is the economy strong or is it weak? The answer is "Yes." The labor market is strong, but the manufacturing side of the economy is weak. We've all known that for a while. Today's indicators confirmed what we know. On the weak side today was the ISM Chicago Business Survey as evidenced by the drop in its Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Ed Yardeni

Fed Stays On Tightening Course

Sep 21, 2022 2 min read

The Fed lifted the federal funds rate range by 75bps to 3.00%-3.25%. Stocks sold off as Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated during his presser today the main points he made in his hawkish speech at Jackson Hole in late August. He stressed that monetary policy may have to be restrictive for a while to bring inflation down, and that the process may be painful. There wasn'

Ed Yardeni

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