Week Ahead

The Economic Week Ahead: May 1-5

Apr 29, 2023 1 min read paid

This is another big week for earnings reports, which have been mostly better than expected so far. In addition, the FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds his après-meeting presser at 2:30 p.m. In our opinion, it's a toss-up whether the Fed will do none or one 25bps rate hike. But our subjective odds of an announced pause is 75% either

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 24-28

Apr 23, 2023 1 min read paid

This week is jampacked with economic indicators and earnings reports. The BIGGEST numbers will come out on Friday for the PCED and ECI inflation rates. Both should show that inflation remains high but is continuing to moderate. The ECI wage inflation rate was 5.1% during Q4. We know that AHE fell to 4.2% y/y during March (chart). Q1's preliminary real GDP (Thu) is tracking at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: April 17-21

Apr 16, 2023 2 min read paid

This is a light week for economic indicators, but there will be plenty of earnings calls to keep investors busy. We will be focusing on the two regional business surveys for April released by the FRBNY (Mon) and the Philly Fed (Thu). Together, they tend to foretell the outcome of the three other regional business surveys released later this month as well as the national M-PMI (out early next month)

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, March 5-10

Mar 5, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify on the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report to two congressional committees on Tuesday and Wednesday. He is likely to say that although there are signs of disinflation, inflation remains too high and the Fed still has lots of work to do to bring it down. Powell's favorite labor market indicator, i.e., job openings, will be out on Wednesday for

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, January 17-20

Jan 16, 2023 2 min read paid

We expect that more of the Fed's talking heads will be talking this week about monetary policy perhaps with a bit less agreement of what needs to be done next. They only have three days to do so before the FOMC blackout period begins. The Q4-2022 earnings reporting season continues this week. More important than the quarter's results will be managements' guidance for this year.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead: October 3-7

Oct 2, 2022 1 min read

Good news in the labor market is now bad news for the bond and stock markets because it gives the Fed more leeway to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. This week's labor market indicators include August's JOLTS (Tue.) and both September's ADP Private Payrolls (Wed.) and the BLS Employment Situation (Fri.). Last weeks low jobless claims number suggests that labor demand continues to

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 26-30

Sep 25, 2022 1 min read

The blackout period is over for the members of the Federal Open Mouth Committee. This week, we can expect that many of the Fed's talking heads will repeat the hawkish remarks made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his presser last Wednesday, i.e., monetary policy needs to be more restrictive to bring down inflation. The week ahead is also jam packed with economic indicators: (1) Consumers &

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, September 12-16

Sep 10, 2022 1 min read

It's another action packed week ahead. On the inflation front, we are expecting that, on Monday, the FRB-NY survey of consumer inflationary expectations will show some moderation, reflecting the plunge in gasoline prices, while food inflation remained elevated. On Tuesday, August's CPI should do the same. August's NFIB survey of small business owners (released on Wednesday) is likely to show that lots of them

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (Aug. 29-Sept. 2)

Aug 28, 2022 1 min read paid

Time marches on! September is almost here. The week ahead is packed with employment data starting with July's JOLTS (Tues.), jobless claims (Thurs.), and August's employment report (Fri.). August's consumer confidence survey (Tues.) will also provide insights into the availability of jobs.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead (August 22-26)

Aug 21, 2022 1 min read

The big event of the coming week will occur on Friday at 10:00 am EDT, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell will address the annual global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Nothing much has changed since his press conference on July 27 other than that the S&P 500 is 7.8% higher. So he is likely to signal another rate hike in late September aimed at

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, August 1-5

Jul 31, 2022 2 min read paid

Can you believe it’s August already? This week, we’ll get lots of data on business activity, employment, consumers, housing, and construction. On balance, it should all be consistent with our growth recession scenario. Consider the following: (1) Business. On Monday, ISM’s M-PMI is likely to fall closer to 50.0. A similar index that we compile from the 5 regional Fed surveys was very weak last month.

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, July 25-29, 2022

Jul 24, 2022 2 min read paid

The week ahead is jam-packed with economic data that are likely to show weakening economic activity and some signs of peaking inflation. In addition, the latest FOMC statement, released Wednesday, will probably announce a 75bps rate hike. Now consider the following:

Ed Yardeni

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