The current bull market started on October 12 when the S&P 500 bottomed at 3577.03 (chart). It rose 24.6% reaching a high of 4455.59 on July 3. So far it is down only 1.3% through Friday's close. It seems to have found resistance at the upper end of the bull market's channel. If so, then it might fall back down and find support at the bottom of that channel around 4200. If the channel holds then the S&P 500 could end the year between 4600 and 4800, as we expect.
Alternatively, downside surprises in this week's inflation indicators could charge up the bulls to take the S&P 500 higher now above the channel. On the other hand, higher-than-expected inflation readings could heighten fears that the Fed will have to tighten to cause a recession as the only clear way to bring inflation down. That would cause the market to retest the lower end of its channel.
