The economy has experienced neither a hard landing nor a soft landing since the Fed started tightening monetary policy in March 2022.…
We still expect that the Fed's preferred core PCED inflation measure will fall to the Fed's 2.0%…
The bull market has stampeded through some of the most optimistic price targets on Wall Street including ours. While we are sticking…
The first available monthly indicator of the labor market is the "jobs plentiful" series in the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)…
Are stock market valuations too high? There is no obvious answer to the valuation question. So we are dependent on history for…
The key indicator everyone's watching this week is May's PCED (Fri). We expect the Fed's preferred…
The stock market has a bad breadth problem again. For a while, it seemed to be attributable to the outperformance of the…
TAMED I: Technical Analysis Of Macro Economic Data. Over the past two years, the hard landers had innumerable theories and charts to…
Today's batch of economic indicators was on the weak side. Indeed, the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index fell deeper into negative…
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The rates of unemployment and inflation aren’t always inversely correlated, as the Phillips Curve model posits. Historically, they have often been;…
May's retail sales, including food services, rose just 0.1% m/m, weaker than expected (chart). That's in…
