Ed Yardeni

Fed Chair Not Likely to Stir Things Up Tomorrow

Feb 6, 2023 2 min read

Fed Chair Jerome Powell isn't likely to upset the financial markets tomorrow if he says what he said at his press conference last week. The word “disinflation” was uttered 11 times at Powell’s presser on February 1. He was the only one who mentioned the word at his presser. He repeatedly acknowledged that inflation was moderating but still had a ways to go before reaching the Fed’

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 6 - 10

Feb 5, 2023 2 min read paid

The FOMC's blackout period ended on Friday. So we can look forward to lots of chatter from the Fed heads until the start of the next period on March 11. They are likely to parrot Fed Chair Jerome Powell's moderately less hawkish outlook for monetary policy, as he explained it at his presser last Wednesday: Inflation is moderating for goods, but not yet for services. So

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Feb 4, 2023 2 min read paid

Our go-to market maven is Joe Feshbach. We asked him to share his latest thoughts about the S&P 500 from his perspective based on his 40+ years of trading the markets. He has turned cautious:

Ed Yardeni

S&P 500's Comeback Kids

Feb 4, 2023 2 min read paid

In our opinion, the latest bear market started on January 3, 2022 and ended on October 12, 2022. The S&P 500 fell 25.4% over that 282-day span. The decline was led by a 30% drop in the forward P/E of the S&P 500 and a 6.2% increase in forward earnings over that period. At the beginning of last year, we expected a correction,

Ed Yardeni

Technicals Confirming Bear Bottomed Oct. 12

Feb 3, 2023 1 min read

The S&P 500 blasted higher through its 200-day moving average over the past few days (chart). The four previous attempts to break out of this average failed. This one should succeed. The S&P 500's 50-day moving average has just risen slightly above its 200-day moving average, which may be bottoming now. Last summer and fall we observed that the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear Ratio

Ed Yardeni

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/30/23

Feb 1, 2023 1 min read

The global financial markets are reflecting expectations for an improved global economy, and the US stock market is siding with the optimists on the US economic outlook, us among them: We continue to see greater odds of a soft landing (60%) than a hard one (40%). Below is exclusive early access to Dr Ed's Webcast for paid members. This post and video will open to the public on

Ed Yardeni

DEEP DIVE: The Fed - Peak Hawkishness?

Jan 31, 2023 3 min read paid

The FOMC’s two-day meeting ends tomorrow. At 2:00 p.m., the committee will issue its statement, and at 2:30 p.m., Fed Chair Jerome Powell will hold his usual after-meeting press conference. For the other Fed officials, the blackout period preventing public comments ends on Friday. The next blackout period starts on March 11. So we can look forward to lots of commentary from the Fed heads

Ed Yardeni

Betting On S&P 500 Sectors In 2023

Jan 30, 2023 1 min read paid

While stock picking may be back in style and momentum investing is running out of momentum, we are still keeping track of the relative performance of the 11 S&P 500 sectors to one another and to the overall index (chart). Our four favorite sector picks for this year are Energy, Financials, Industrials, and Materials. These are our overweight recommendations. We would market-weight Information Technology and Health Care. We

Ed Yardeni

The Economic Week Ahead, Jan. 30 - Feb. 3

Jan 29, 2023 1 min read paid

The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday. Odds are the committee will vote for a 25bps federal funds rate hike to 4.50%-4.75%. Odds are that Fed Chair Jerome Powell at his Wednesday afternoon presser will continue to sound hawkish even though economic growth is slowing and inflation is moderating. This week will also be jampacked with employment indicators. January's Consumer Confidence (Tue) is likely to

Ed Yardeni

Market Call

Jan 28, 2023 1 min read

Here is Joe Feshbach's latest take on the S&P 500: "The index is getting closer to its two previous highs of 4100,and thus a possible break above that level." That's been his target at the beginning of this rally and he sees "no reason to alter it." He adds, "The sentiment numbers just do not support a big

Ed Yardeni

Inflation: From Pitbull To Poodle?

Jan 27, 2023 2 min read paid

Inflation continues to moderate. In early 2022, we predicted that the headline PCED inflation rate would decline from 6%-7% during H1-2022 to 4%-5% during H2-2022 to 3%-4% in 2023. So far, so good (chart). It fell from a peak of 7% during June of last year to 5% by the end of the year.

Ed Yardeni

Q4 GDP Report Was Weak & Inflation Moderated

Jan 26, 2023 2 min read

The headlines in the financial press today suggested that Q4's real GDP was strong. On closer inspection, it was relatively weak and consistent with our view that the economy has been in a "rolling recession" since early last year when the Fed started to tighten monetary policy. Real GDP rose 2.9% (saar) following 3.2% during Q3 (chart). However, real final sales of domestic product

Ed Yardeni

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Fed Chair Not Likely to Stir Things Up Tomorrow

The Economic Week Ahead, Feb. 6 - 10

Market Call

S&P 500's Comeback Kids

Technicals Confirming Bear Bottomed Oct. 12

Dr Ed's Video Webcast 1/30/23

DEEP DIVE: The Fed - Peak Hawkishness?

Betting On S&P 500 Sectors In 2023

The Economic Week Ahead, Jan. 30 - Feb. 3

Market Call

Inflation: From Pitbull To Poodle?

Q4 GDP Report Was Weak & Inflation Moderated