Stock Market·
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1 min read
Summer Rally
We've been making the case that June 16 might have been the bear-market low in the S&P 500…
Archive
Recession·
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1 min read
·Members
No Recession In Today's GDP Indicators
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Consumer·
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1 min read
Consumers Have Nothing To Fear But The Future
Consumers are looking into their crystal balls and they don't like what they see. Even though the present still looks…
Europe·
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1 min read
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Germany's Economic Outlook Taking A Dive
Germany's Ifo business confidence index fell sharply during July, led by its expectations component, which is near the lows of the Great Financial Crisis and the Great Virus Crisis.
S&P 500 Earnings·
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1 min read
Industry Analysts Shaving S&P 500 Earnings Estimates
The industry analysts who cover the S&P 500 companies are starting to lower their earnings estimates for 2022 and 2023.…
Deep Dive·
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2 min read
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DEEP DIVE: The Dollar & TINAC (There Is No Alternative Country)
As we observed yesterday, the geopolitical mess around the world continues to favor the US dollar, suggesting increasing net capital inflows from…
Week Ahead·
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2 min read
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The Economic Week Ahead, July 25-29, 2022
The week ahead is jam-packed with economic data that are likely to show weakening economic activity and some signs of peaking inflation.…
Global Economy·
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1 min read
More Signs of Slowing Global Economy
Today, S&P Global released its flash estimates for the purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) of the US, the Eurozone, the UK,…
Economy·
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1 min read
·Members
More Signs of A Mid-Cycle Slowdown
The latest batch of economic indicators are in line with our mild recession outlook (a.k.a., a mid-cycle slowdown). We now…
China·
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1 min read
China Scrambles to Avoid Lehman Moment
How do you say "Lehman Moment" in Chinese? The Chinese government is scrambling to avert such a calamity resulting from…
SPX·
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1 min read
Is the Stock Market Discounting Peak Inflation?
The S&P 500 rose yesterday by 2.76% to 3936.69. It is up 7.4% from its June 16…
Inflation·
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1 min read
NY Fed Survey Shows Easing Pricing Pressures
The NY Fed's July business survey showed significant declines in the prices-paid and prices-received diffusion indexes . Six-month-ahead expectations are down…
